GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsSports

Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Name: Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.35M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Vol

$1.35M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.00M

Kalshi

markets · $352.02K

Price Spread

0.6%avg

max 1.5%

Arbitrage

of 8 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.35M

74%

26%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(8)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	91%	93%	2%
Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	6%	7%	0%
Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	2%	1%	1%
Will Jiří Procházka be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	0%	1%	1%
Will Khalil Rountree Jr. be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	0%	1%	0%
Will Jamahal Hill be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	0%	1%	0%
Will Azamat Murzakanov be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	0%	1%	0%
Will Jan Błachowicz be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	0%	1%	0%

Single-Platform Markets(7)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

93%

Top Probability

$1.35M

Volume

Markets

2.7%

Price Gap

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Light Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If X is the UFC Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connec

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the official UFC Light Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no ch"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.35M
* **Total Liquidity:** $13.1K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 103.16)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (13 mkts) vs Kalshi (10 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $17.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $76.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $34.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $93.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Khalil Rountree Jr. be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $143.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $25.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Azamat Murzakanov be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $23.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jiří Procházka be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $425.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $35.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $9.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $49.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.5% spread between platforms.

### 7. Will Jan Błachowicz be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $914
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Jamahal Hill be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $59.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Khamzat Chimaev)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $36.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Aleksandar Rakić)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Volkan Oezdemir be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $36.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Dominick Reyes be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $7.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Bogdan Guskov be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $264.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Paulo Costa be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Nikita Krylov be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $385
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHISports

Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?

Before 2027 If X is the UFC Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connec

Volume$352.02K

Markets10

POLYMARKETSports

Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Volume$1.00M

Markets13

15 of 15

Sort:

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average91.8%

Polymarket

91.0%

Kalshi+1.5%

92.5%

Difference:1.5%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 91.0¢No 9.0¢

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Carlos Ulberg)

If Carlos Ulberg is the UFC Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated ma

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average6.5%

Polymarket

6.5%

Kalshi+0.1%

6.5%

Difference:0.1%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Magomed Ankalaev)

If Magomed Ankalaev is the UFC Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average1.3%

Polymarket+0.5%

1.6%

Kalshi

1.0%

Difference:0.5%

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 1.6¢No 98.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Alex Pereira)

If Alex Pereira is the UFC Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated mar

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Jiří Procházka be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average0.6%

Polymarket

0.1%

Kalshi+0.9%

1.0%

Difference:0.9%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢

KKalshi

Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Jiří Procházka be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Jiří Procházka)

If Jiří Procházka is the UFC Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated m

KALSHI

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Khamzat Chimaev)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIOther

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Khamzat Chimaev)

If Khamzat Chimaev is the UFC Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated

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Next Market Closes

117d 4h remaining

Jan 01, 2027 4:59 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

12¢

Polymarket

13¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ZWoOYY" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?"></iframe>

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Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

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Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Rules & Resolution

Events (2)

Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?

Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Markets (8)

Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Carlos Ulberg)

Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Magomed Ankalaev)

Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Alex Pereira)

Will Jiří Procházka be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Will Jiří Procházka be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Jiří Procházka)

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Khamzat Chimaev)

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Khamzat Chimaev)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Rules & Resolution

Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?

Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Will Carlos Ulberg be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Carlos Ulberg)

Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Will Magomed Ankalaev be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Magomed Ankalaev)

Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Alex Pereira)

Will Jiří Procházka be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Will Jiří Procházka be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Jiří Procházka)

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Khamzat Chimaev)

Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026? (Khamzat Chimaev)

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