Obama divorce before 2027? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Obama divorce before 2027?

Name: Obama divorce before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$149.13

Events

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Obama divorce before 2027?

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Polymarket

markets · $149.13

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $149.13

100%

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1 market tracked

Obama divorce before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Obama divorce before 2027?	Poly	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$149.13

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama and/or Michelle Obama announce their intention to divorce by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Barack Obama and/o

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Obama divorce before 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (349 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama and/or Michelle Obama announce their intention to divorce by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Barack Obama and/o

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama and/or Michelle Obama announce their intention to divorce by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $149
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Obama divorce before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $149
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

348d 12h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

7¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/bdEXKr" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Obama divorce before 2027?"></iframe>

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Obama divorce before 2027?

Obama divorce before 2027?

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Obama divorce before 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)