When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
PM $4.8K · K 57.1K contracts
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When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
PM $4.8K · K 57.1K contracts
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Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Before 2027 is priced at 48% on Polymarket and 26% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027Same question, fine print differs | 48% | 26% | 22.0 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $4.8K · K 57.1K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
1
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
FDA - BPC If the FDA announces Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion is satisfied by placement of BPC-157 in either Category 1 or Category 1 Bulk Drug Substances Under Evaluation on the 503A Bulk Drug Substances list, as either designation restores compounding eligibility. Removal from Category 2 alone, without placement in Category 1, does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T12:27:38.577Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event asks when the FDA will reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List. The rules excerpt says the market resolves to Yes if the FDA announces that reclassification before a cutoff. It states that "the Payout Criterion is satisfied by placement of BPC-157 in either Category 1 or Category 1 Bulk Drug Substances Under Evaluation on the 503A Bulk Drug Substances list, as either designation restores compounding eligibility" [1]. It also states that "Removal from Category 2 alone, without placement in Category 1, does not satisfy the Payout Criterion" [1].
The two saved markets use different cutoffs. The "Before November" contract lists an end time of 2026-11-08T15:00:00.000Z, and the "Before 2027" contract lists 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z [1]. The event-level listed end time is not supplied [1]. Because the close dates and titles differ, the two contracts ask different questions and should be read separately.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-13T12:27:38.577Z, and the source was retrieved at 12:38:13.314Z [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
For the "Before November" contract, the saved Yes price is 0.05 and the No price is 0.95 [1]. For the "Before 2027" contract, the saved Yes price is 0.195 and the No price is 0.805 [1]. Because the windows differ, the two prices should not be averaged, and the difference between them is not an arbitrage opportunity.
The coverage shows two of two saved markets for this event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The source notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The supplied evidence includes no volume or trader count, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why either price is where it is, and it contains no news or FDA development bearing on timing. The rules excerpt is truncated and includes the placeholder-like phrase "before X 1, Y," which does not give a concrete cutoff, so the full official rules should be checked [1]. Readers should also confirm the listed close times and status on the provider, since this snapshot reflects only the observed moment.
References
- Kalshi: When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T12:27:38.577Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will move BPC-157 into Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List within a stated window. The source describes it as an active Kalshi event titled "When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?" [1]. Its rules say the market resolves to Yes if the FDA announces that reclassification before the stated deadline [1]. The payout test is narrower than the event title suggests. According to the rules, BPC-157 satisfies the payout criterion if it is placed in either Category 1 or Category 1 Bulk Drug Substances Under Evaluation on the 503A Bulk Drug Substances list, since either designation restores compounding eligibility [1]. The rules also state that removal from Category 2 alone, without placement in Category 1, does not satisfy the criterion [1]. A reader should therefore treat leaving Category 2 and entering Category 1 as two separate conditions. The event has two contract windows in the saved data. One is titled "Before November" and the other "Before 2027". Their end dates are contract closing dates, not dates on which any FDA action has been announced or scheduled. The source excerpt also ends mid-sentence, so the full rule text, including how the deadline is written, is not available here.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a formal FDA announcement places BPC-157 in one of the two Category 1 designations that the rules name [1]. Because those designations are described as restoring compounding eligibility, the question is tied to whether the substance can again be compounded under the rules described in the source [1]. The contract does not measure general FDA interest in the substance, and a removal from Category 2 by itself would not resolve it as Yes under the stated rules [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 12:27 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for this contract to resolve Yes?
The FDA must announce the reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List before the deadline in the contract. The rules count placement in either Category 1 or Category 1 Bulk Drug Substances Under Evaluation on the 503A list [1].
Is removing BPC-157 from Category 2 enough?
No. The rules state that removal from Category 2 alone, without placement in Category 1, does not satisfy the payout criterion [1].
Why does the contract mention compounding eligibility?
The rules say that either Category 1 designation restores compounding eligibility, which is the reason placement in either designation satisfies the criterion [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Same-question pairs
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Largest saved gap: 22.0 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
