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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Lyon curfew effectively lifted by...?

Lyon curfew effectively lifted by...?
Vol

PM $1.0K

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Events

1

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Markets

3

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 20, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is October 31 at 64.5%.

Polymarket

  1. October 3164.5%
  2. October 2443.5%
  3. October 212.7%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $1.0K

Reported volume · provider units

3

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any full calendar day between the day of market creation and the specified date, inclusive (Lyon time), passes without any curfew in effect in any part of the City of Lyon, France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A calendar day passes without any curfew in effect if, at no point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM Lyon time on that day, a curfew is in effect in any part of the City of Lyon. The City of Lyon refers to the municipality (commune) of Lyon, within its official municipal boundaries. A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Lyon, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A curfew of any scope will count, whether citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of the City of Lyon, and must be officially declared by the City of Lyon, the Prefecture of the Rhône, or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will count so long as it applies to at least part of the City of Lyon. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not be considered curfews for the purposes of this market. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not be considered curfews unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
Paris curfew effectively lifted by...?

Paris curfew effectively lifted by...?

PM $123.34
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Yes 63.5%
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?Yes 44%
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 21?Yes 5.5%
3 mktsNext deadline Oct 21, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by...?

Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by...?

PM $556.39
Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 31?Yes 79%
Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 24?Yes 67.5%
Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 21?Yes 59%
3 mktsNext deadline Oct 21, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

PM $380.29
Panama Canal effectively closed by December 31?Yes 7.5%
Panama Canal effectively closed by November 30?Yes 3.3%
Panama Canal effectively closed by October 31?Yes 1.2%
3 mktsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

PM $17.35M
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes 16%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?Yes 8.5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Yes 2.4%
3 mktsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

K 312.3 contracts
Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2030?Yes 51%
Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2029?Yes 26%
Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 18%
+1 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

PM $34.1K
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?Yes 40.5%
1 mktNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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