GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Top AI model in July?

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Top AI model in July?

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$0.00

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

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10 markets tracked

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6-thinking)

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6-thinking)	Kalshi	60%
What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-fable-5)	Kalshi	11%
What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6)	Kalshi	3%
What will be the top AI model this month? (muse-spark)	Kalshi	1%
What will be the top AI model this month? (gpt-5.5-high)	Kalshi	1%
What will be the top AI model this month? (gemini-3-pro)	Kalshi	1%
What will be the top AI model this month? (gemini-3.1-pro-preview)	Kalshi	1%
What will be the top AI model this month? (ernie-5.1-preview)	Kalshi	1%
What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-7-thinking)	Kalshi	1%
What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-7)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

60%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

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About This Event

On Jul 31, 2026 If X is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank, UB, then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Top AI model in July?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jul 31, 2026

If X is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank, UB, then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If muse-spark is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will wi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. What will be the top AI model this month? (muse-spark)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. What will be the top AI model this month? (gpt-5.5-high)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. What will be the top AI model this month? (gemini-3-pro)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. What will be the top AI model this month? (gemini-3.1-pro-preview)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. What will be the top AI model this month? (ernie-5.1-preview)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-7-thinking)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6-thinking)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-fable-5)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-7)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Top AI model in July?

Volume$0.00

Markets10

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KALSHI

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6-thinking)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.0¢No 40.0¢

KALSHITech

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6-thinking)

If claude-opus-4-6-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most

KALSHI

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-fable-5)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

KALSHITech

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-fable-5)

If claude-fable-5 is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes wil

KALSHI

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHITech

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6)

If claude-opus-4-6 is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes wi

KALSHI

What will be the top AI model this month? (muse-spark)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHITech

What will be the top AI model this month? (muse-spark)

If muse-spark is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will wi

KALSHI

What will be the top AI model this month? (gpt-5.5-high)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHITech

What will be the top AI model this month? (gpt-5.5-high)

If gpt-5.5-high is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will

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Top AI model in July?

Top AI model in July?

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What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6-thinking)

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Events (1)

Top AI model in July?

Markets (10)

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6-thinking)

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6-thinking)

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-fable-5)

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-fable-5)

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6)

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6)

What will be the top AI model this month? (muse-spark)

What will be the top AI model this month? (muse-spark)

What will be the top AI model this month? (gpt-5.5-high)

What will be the top AI model this month? (gpt-5.5-high)

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Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6-thinking)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Top AI model in July?

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6-thinking)

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6-thinking)

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-fable-5)

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-fable-5)

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6)

What will be the top AI model this month? (claude-opus-4-6)

What will be the top AI model this month? (muse-spark)

What will be the top AI model this month? (muse-spark)

What will be the top AI model this month? (gpt-5.5-high)

What will be the top AI model this month? (gpt-5.5-high)

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