GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

Name: Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
End: 2026-11-16T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$24.07K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

Vol

$24.07K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $24.07K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $24.07K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	Poly	26%
Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	Poly	21%
Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -0.8% and 0.0%?	Poly	13%
Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 1.6% and 2.4%?	Poly	11%
Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -2.4% and -1.6%?	Poly	6%
Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 2.4% and 3.2%?	Poly	5%
Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 3.2% and 4.0%?	Poly	5%
Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be less than -2.4%?	Poly	4%
Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -1.6% and -0.8%?	Poly	4%
Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be at least 4.0%?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

26%

Top Probability

$24.07K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the qu

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 16, 2026 (72 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.

The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the qu

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $24.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be less than -2.4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 16, 2026): Vol $283
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -2.4% and -1.6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 16, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -1.6% and -0.8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 16, 2026): Vol $261
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -0.8% and 0.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 16, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 16, 2026): Vol $10.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 16, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 1.6% and 2.4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 16, 2026): Vol $635
  DATA: [Yes: 11.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 2.4% and 3.2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 16, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 3.2% and 4.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 16, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.1% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be at least 4.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 16, 2026): Vol $521
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy