Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied event is "Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Nov 12, 2026." Its rule states that if a named video ranks #2 on the Daily Top Music Videos United States chart dated Nov 12, 2026, the market resolves to Yes [1]. Each included contract applies this same rule to a different video, so the contracts are not independent bets on one shared outcome. Only one video can occupy any given rank on a given chart.

The rule also says the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. The market records list a close date of 2026-11-26T15:00:00Z for each contract [1]. The source excerpt, however, says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. These two details should be read together. The contract data gives a listed date, but the source excerpt does not confirm a separate end time, so the listed close time should be checked against the provider before relying on it.

Reading the snapshot

The prices come from a snapshot observed at 2026-11-12T09:00:07Z and retrieved at 2026-11-12T10:26:25Z [1]. This is a past record, not a live quote. Each included contract shows a Yes price of 0.475 and a No price of 0.525 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.

All 12 included contracts show identical prices. Because the prices match, the snapshot does not show any ranking among these videos. Volume is also not included in this interpretation, and volume would not indicate liquidity or the number of traders in any case.

The sample is partial. The provider event contains 15 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The selection method ranks markets by Yes price and then volume, so the omitted three cannot be compared using this data. Their prices are unknown. Do not infer that they are lower or higher, and do not treat the 12 included markets as the complete field.

What remains uncertain

The supplied evidence does not show the chart result, any later price movement, or whether any video has already reached rank #2. It also does not explain why the prices are identical. Identical prices across different video titles could reflect many factors, and this evidence does not establish which apply. Because these contracts are on one provider event, comparing them with other platforms would combine different rules, close times, and samples, so no cross-platform average or arbitrage conclusion should be drawn.

References

1. Kalshi: Runner-Up Daily Music Video USA on YouTube: Nov 12, 2026. Provider data observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z.