Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (November 2026)
K 9.8K contracts
1
10
Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (November 2026)
K 9.8K contracts
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is At least 6 at 97%.
Kalshi
- At least 697%
- At least 789.5%
- At least 878%
- At least 943.5%
- At least 1019%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 9.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
in Nov 2026 If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least X in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-11T12:00:05.992Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event is "Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (November 2026)" on Kalshi [1]. Its rule says that if "the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least X in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each of the ten saved markets uses a different value for X, from 6 to 25.
The market records list an end date of 2027-03-08 15:00 UTC, but the event excerpt says the listed end time was not supplied [1]. Treat that date as a listed close time in the saved data. It is not a resolution date or an announced event date, and the evidence does not show when the figure will be reported.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-11-11 12:00:05 UTC and retrieved at 14:22:34 UTC on the same day [1]. They describe that snapshot only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The Yes prices in the saved sample are:
- at least 6: 0.97
- at least 7: 0.795
- at least 8: 0.69
- at least 9: 0.335
- at least 10: 0.345
- at least 12: 0.33
- at least 14: 0.15
- at least 16: 0.14
- at least 20: 0.065
- at least 25: 0.045
Generally, higher thresholds carry lower Yes prices. The at least 9 and at least 10 contracts are a small exception, with 0.335 and 0.345 respectively. The evidence does not explain this.
All ten saved markets are included, and the sample is marked as not partial. Each threshold is a separate contract, so the prices should not be averaged or read as a single distribution. The evidence includes no volume figures, so it says nothing about liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit at these levels, how many traders hold each view, or whether any recent developments are relevant. It also does not establish that the provider lists every possible threshold. Resolution depends on the IMF PortWatch figure as reported and on the provider's rules, which the supplied excerpt does not fully describe. Because the excerpt says the end time was not supplied, check the listed close time on the provider page before relying on it.
References
- Kalshi: Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (November 2026). Provider data observed 2026-11-11T12:00:05.992Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 11, 2026 UTCOverview
This Kalshi event asks about the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz in November 2026, as reported by the IMF PortWatch [1]. Each market in the event is a threshold question. A market resolves to Yes if the highest daily count of transit calls reaches at least the stated number X during November 2026 [1]. The saved markets in this event use thresholds of 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14, 16, 20 and 25 transit calls [1]. Higher thresholds therefore require a higher peak day to resolve Yes. The event record is listed as active [1]. The saved market records show an end date of 8 March 2027 for each threshold, but the event excerpt says that a listed end time was not supplied [1]. The March 2027 date should therefore be read as a stored field in the market data, not as an announced resolution date or a confirmed settlement schedule. The prices referred to here are snapshots taken at the observation time shown in the dated status. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and a difference between two thresholds or two platforms does not by itself establish an opportunity. The ten saved markets are all of the markets recorded for this event, but that does not establish that the provider lists every possible threshold.
Historical Context
According to the Wikipedia article on the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, shipping through the strait has been largely blocked by Iran since 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched an air war against Iran [2]. Before the war began, about 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade and 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas passed through the strait [2]. The Wikipedia article on the wider 2026 Iran war describes the conflict as following the Twelve-Day War in June 2025 and ongoing negotiations over Iran's nuclear program [3]. These are historical background statements from encyclopedia articles retrieved for this page. They do not verify the current state of shipping traffic or any event after the retrieval time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single statistic: the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz recorded in the IMF PortWatch data for November 2026 [1]. Because the question depends on one peak day rather than a monthly total, it tracks the busiest day in the month rather than average activity. Given the background that traffic has been largely blocked since February 2026 [2], the thresholds in the ladder show how a range of peak-day outcomes is being priced. The result of each market depends only on the provider's reported figures and the stated rule [1], not on news coverage of the strait.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-11 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly determines whether a market resolves to Yes?
A market resolves to Yes if the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch, is at least the threshold X for November 2026 [1]. For example, the 20-call market resolves Yes only if the peak day reaches at least 20 transit calls [1].
Why do higher thresholds appear with different prices?
Each threshold is a separate yes or no question about the same peak-day figure [1]. A higher threshold requires a higher peak day, so its Yes outcome depends on a harder condition. The saved snapshot prices are observations at a point in time and do not explain why any market was priced as it was.
Is the March 2027 date a resolution date?
The saved market records list an end date of 8 March 2027 [1]. The event excerpt states that a listed end time was not supplied [1]. The date should not be treated as an announced resolution date. The resolution rule itself refers to the November 2026 peak-day figure reported by the IMF PortWatch [1].
Does the saved set include every possible threshold?
No conclusion about the full field can be drawn from the saved set. The record includes ten markets, all of those saved for this event, with thresholds from 6 to 25 [1]. The provider's sample warning states that this does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?
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Saved prices; check contract rules.
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K 241.9K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
