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Congressional Progressive Caucus size after the midterms?

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Congressional Progressive Caucus size after the midterms?

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Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 95 on Feb 1, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 95 on Feb 1, 2027?	Kalshi	95%
Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 100 on Feb 1, 2027?	Kalshi	73%
Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 105 on Feb 1, 2027?	Kalshi	21%
Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 110 on Feb 1, 2027?	Kalshi	11%

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About This Event

on Feb 1, 2027 If the total count of U.S. Congress members, including non-voting delegates, officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus is above X on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Congressional Progressive Caucus size after the midterms?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** on Feb 1, 2027

If the total count of U.S. Congress members, including non-voting delegates, officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus is above X on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus is above 95 on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 95 on Feb 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 110 on Feb 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 105 on Feb 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 100 on Feb 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 2, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Congressional Progressive Caucus size after the midterms?

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KALSHI

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 95 on Feb 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 95 on Feb 1, 2027?

If the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus is above 95 on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 100 on Feb 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.0¢No 27.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 100 on Feb 1, 2027?

If the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus is above 100 on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 105 on Feb 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 105 on Feb 1, 2027?

If the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus is above 105 on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 110 on Feb 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 110 on Feb 1, 2027?

If the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus is above 110 on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/gxWfmE" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Congressional Progressive Caucus size after the midterms?"></iframe>

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Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 95 on Feb 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

Congressional Progressive Caucus size after the midterms?

Markets (4)

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 95 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 95 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 100 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 100 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 105 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 105 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 110 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 110 on Feb 1, 2027?

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Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 95 on Feb 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Congressional Progressive Caucus size after the midterms?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 95 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 95 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 100 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 100 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 105 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 105 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 110 on Feb 1, 2027?

Will the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus be above 110 on Feb 1, 2027?

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