Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied Kalshi event asks how many 2026 U.S. Senate races (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in 2024 will be won by a Republican Party nominee. The rules state that the count is taken "at the November 3, 2026 general election" and that the District of Columbia is excluded because it "is not a state and holds no U.S. Senate or gubernatorial election" [1]. Candidates who win "as an independent, or under a fusion, minor-party, or write-in line without being the Republican Party's own nominee, does NOT count" [1]. If a runoff decides a race, "the runoff result governs" [1].

Each market asks about one exact count, except the final one, which asks about "at least 6" [1]. These thresholds are separate contracts and should not be read as a single distribution.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:21:35.238Z [1]. These are point-in-time snapshots, not live or executable quotes. The Yes prices were: exactly 0 at 0.025, exactly 1 at 0.12, exactly 2 at 0.365, exactly 3 at 0.25, exactly 4 at 0.115, exactly 5 at 0.05, and at least 6 at 0.01 [1].

The exact-count Yes prices sum to 0.925 and the "at least 6" price is 0.01, but these figures should not be treated as a probability distribution or averaged across platforms. The snapshot includes only one platform, and the rules and thresholds differ across the seven markets. Volume data was not used in this comparison.

The listed end date for every market is 2027-03-15T15:00:00.000Z [1]. This is a contract closing time from the provider data, not the date the election is held or the date a result is confirmed. The source excerpt separately says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1], so the reader should treat the closing time as provider-reported and unverified against the rules text.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show why any price is where it is, how many traders hold each view, or what recent developments may have affected the market. It also does not establish election outcomes, since the November 3, 2026 vote had not been reported in the supplied material. The sample warning notes that the providers "do not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because the snapshot is from earlier today, it should not be read as the current price.

References

1. Kalshi: How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.