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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Israeli Legislative Election: % of Vote Below Threshold

Israeli Legislative Election: % of Vote Below Threshold
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Events

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AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $0

Reported volume ยท provider units

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Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the combined share of the vote received by lists that do not pass the electoral threshold in the 2026 Israeli legislative election to the Knesset, defined as the total number of valid votes cast for lists that are not allocated any seats due to falling below the electoral threshold divided by the total number of valid votes cast. (see 2022 example: https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics
Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?

Who will be Israeli interior minister after the election?

K 45.9K contracts
Will Michael Malchieli be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 13%
Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 8.5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be Minister of the Interior as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 4.5%
+26 moreNext deadline Oct 27, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election?

Who will be Israeli national security minister after the election?

K 81.0K contracts
Will Itamar Ben-Gvir be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 14.5%
Will Yoram Cohen be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 11%
Will Yitzhak Wasserlauf be Minister of National Security as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 4%
+21 moreNext deadline Oct 27, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Which lists will win a Knesset seat?

Which lists will win a Knesset seat?

K 24.9K contracts
Will Yashar win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 98%
Will Shas win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 98%
Will Likud win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 98%
+20 moreNext deadline Oct 27, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election?

Who will be Israeli finance minister after the election?

K 79.2K contracts
Will Bezalel Smotrich be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 14%
Will Shaul Meridor be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 9.5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be Minister of Finance as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 9%
+15 moreNext deadline Oct 27, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

K 753.1K contracts
Will Gadi Eizenkot become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 43.5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 28.5%
Will Naftali Bennett become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 11.5%
+15 moreNext deadline Oct 27, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Who will be Israeli foreign minister after the election?

Who will be Israeli foreign minister after the election?

K 35.5K contracts
Will Yair Lapid be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 23%
Will Gideon Sa'ar be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 15%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 6%
+13 moreNext deadline Oct 27, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

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