Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The saved event asks about the season series between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. The event rules say that if the Chiefs win the series, the market resolves to "Chiefs," if the Raiders win it resolves to "Raiders," and if the teams tie it resolves to "tie" [1]. Two separate markets from this event appear in the evidence. One asks whether the series will end in a tie, and the other asks whether the Chiefs will win the series [1].

The rules also set a fallback. If a scheduled game is cancelled, not completed, or otherwise lacks an official result, the series is decided only by completed games. If the result cannot be confirmed by January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves 50-50 [1]. The listed end time for the event is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z, while each market lists an endDate of 2027-01-12T23:59:00.000Z [1]. These dates are contract settings, not announced game dates or confirmed resolution dates.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-17T16:15:26.632Z [1]. They describe that saved moment only and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include volume, trader counts, or any explanation of price movement.

In the tie market, the Yes price is 0.5805 and the No price is 0.4195 [1]. In the Chiefs market, the Yes price is 0.545 and the No price is 0.455 [1]. These are two different contracts with different outcomes. Their prices should not be averaged, combined, or treated as a single probability distribution. A Yes price above 0.5 in one market and a Yes price in another market do not establish that one outcome is more likely than the other.

The sample includes all saved markets for this event, with totalMarkets and includedMarkets both set to 2 and partialSample set to false [1]. The provider's warning, however, says this does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome [1]. The evidence does not include a separate saved market for a Raiders series win, so no price for that outcome should be inferred.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show the game schedule, game results, or whether any game has been cancelled. It also does not show current news, the status of the NFL season, or any reason for the prices. Because the snapshot is from October 17, 2026, later prices may differ. Readers should check the current provider page before drawing conclusions about the market at a later time.

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: Chiefs vs. Raiders Season Series Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z.