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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?
Vol

PM $487.1K

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Events

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Current odds

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As of Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 10.5%.

Polymarket

  1. December 3110.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $487.1K

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or other formal grant of clemency from Israeli President Isaac Herzog for any charges by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned?

K 25.6K contracts
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 1, 2026?Yes 3%
1 mktNext deadline Nov 15, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

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Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?

Kalshi: Will any federal appellate court (including the U.S. Supreme Court) rule reverses or vacates the district court's November 24, 2025 order dismissing the indictment of James Comey, such that the criminal prosecution may proceed?

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PM Yes 6.3%Rules differK Yes 8.1%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?

Kalshi: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Jan 1, 2027?

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PM Yes 5.3%Rules differK Yes 3.5%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?

Kalshi: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Jan 2027?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 5.3%Rules differK Yes 4.4%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

7 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 8, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?

How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?

K 4.0K contracts
Will exactly 2 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?Yes 54%
Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?Yes 29%
Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in Oct 2026?Yes 6.5%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Netanyahu out by...?

Netanyahu out by...?

PM $124.67M
Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027?Yes 71%
Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?Yes 63%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes 40%
3 mktsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
Brazil President, Israel PM & U.S. Senate combo

Brazil President, Israel PM & U.S. Senate combo

PM $446.8K · K 5.1K contracts

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Kalshi: Will Brazil President be Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva AND Israel Prime Minister be Gadi Eizenkot AND U.S. Senate Control be Democratic?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 43.5%Rules differK Yes 44.5%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Kalshi: Will Brazil President be Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva AND Israel Prime Minister be Benjamin Netanyahu AND U.S. Senate Control be Democratic?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 18.1%Rules differK Yes 22%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?

Kalshi: Will Brazil President be Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva AND Israel Prime Minister be Gadi Eizenkot AND U.S. Senate Control be Republican?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 18.4%Rules differK Yes 19%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

6 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 5, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiWorld
Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned?

Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned?

PM $19.1K · K 7.3K contracts

Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?

Kalshi: Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned before Mar 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 15.5%Rules differK Yes 12%

Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?

Kalshi: Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned before Mar 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 14.5%Rules differK Yes 12%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

2 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 24, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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