GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Fed median dot plot in September 2026

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Fed median dot plot in September 2026

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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max 0.0%

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12 markets tracked

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)	Kalshi	72%
What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)	Kalshi	72%
What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)	Kalshi	71%
What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)	Kalshi	71%
What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)	Kalshi	70%
What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.8%)	Kalshi	53%
What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.9%)	Kalshi	34%
What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.0%)	Kalshi	17%
What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.1%)	Kalshi	9%
What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.2%)	Kalshi	5%
What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.3%)	Kalshi	4%
What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.4%)	Kalshi	3%

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72%

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About This Event

At Sep 2026 meeting If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above X at the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying will be the published median year-end 2026 federal funds rate projection in the Summary of Economic Projections, not the midpoint or bounds of the federal funds target range unless that is how the Federal Reserve publishes the rele

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed median dot plot in September 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** At Sep 2026 meeting

If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above X at the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying will be the published median year-end 2026 federal funds rate projection in the Summary of Economic Projections, not the midpoint or bounds of the federal funds target range unless that is how the Federal Reserve publishes the rele

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 4.4% at the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying will be the published median yea"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.4%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.3%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.2%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.1%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 4.0%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.9%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.8%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Fed median dot plot in September 2026

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KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.5¢No 28.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 3.4% at the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying will be the published median yea

KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.5¢No 28.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)

If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 3.3% at the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying will be the published median yea

KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)

If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 3.6% at the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying will be the published median yea

KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 3.5% at the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying will be the published median yea

KALSHI

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.0¢No 30.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)

If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 3.7% at the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying will be the published median yea

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Fed median dot plot in September 2026

Fed median dot plot in September 2026

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What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

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Events (1)

Fed median dot plot in September 2026

Markets (12)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)

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What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fed median dot plot in September 2026

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.4%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.3%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.6%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.5%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? (Above 3.7%)

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