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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Name: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$168.72K

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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

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Polymarket

markets · $168.72K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $168.72K

100%

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1 market tracked

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Poly	40%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, April 18, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (257 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $168.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $37.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.51)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $168.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

256d 14h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

40¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/mwYAid" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?"></iframe>

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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

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Events (1)