This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Switzerland’s June Referendum: What will pass?

Name: Switzerland’s June Referendum: What will pass?
End: 2026-06-14T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$44.17K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Switzerland’s June Referendum: What will pass?

Vol

$44.17K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $44.17K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $44.17K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Poly	81%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Poly	44%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

81%

Top Probability

$44.17K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 14, 2026 : - Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland - Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Switzerland’s June Referendum: What will pass?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 14, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 14, 2026 : 

- Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland
- Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 14, 2026 : 

- Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland
- Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $44.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $35.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.24)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 14, 2026): Vol $40.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 14, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics