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Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

Name: How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
End: 2026-01-14T19:57:13.328Z

Total Volume

$4.52K

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How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?

Vol

$4.52K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $4.52K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.52K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Poly	79%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly one nominating election in the 2026 cycle?	Poly	25%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Poly	3%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Poly	2%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Poly	2%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

79%

Top Probability

$4.52K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they with

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary? 
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 14, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they with

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.72)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly one nominating election in the 2026 cycle?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $917
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $334
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in exactly four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $356
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Democratic Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 29, 2026): Vol $265
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics