Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Age of 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Name: Age of 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?
End: 2028-08-31T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.00K

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Age of 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?

Vol

$4.00K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.00K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.00K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be 45-54 years old?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be 45-54 years old?	Poly	34%
Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be 55-64 years old?	Poly	33%
Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be under 45 years old?	Poly	28%
Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be 65-74 years old?	Poly	4%
Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be 75-84 years old?	Poly	3%
Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be 85 or older?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

34%

Top Probability

$4.00K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the age of the individual who formally wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. The individual's age will be calculated on the day on which they accept the nomination. A person will be considered to have advanced from one age to the next immediately upon the beginning of the calendar day of their day of birth. In the event that no individual has won and accepted such nomination by November 7, 2028, this market will

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Age of 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 31, 2028 (690 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the age of the individual who formally wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. 

The individual's age will be calculated on the day on which they accept the nomination. A person will be considered to have advanced from one age to the next immediately upon the beginning of the calendar day of their day of birth.

In the event that no individual has won and accepted such nomination by November 7, 2028, this market will 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the age of the individual who formally wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. 

The individual's age will be calculated on the day on which they accept the nomination. A person will be considered to have advanced from on"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $160.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be under 45 years old?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2028): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be 45-54 years old?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2028): Vol $976
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be 55-64 years old?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2028): Vol $456
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be 65-74 years old?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2028): Vol $245
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be 75-84 years old?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2028): Vol $175
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee be 85 or older?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2028): Vol $228
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics