GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

Name: How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$29.55K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

Vol

$29.55K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $29.55K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $29.55K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Poly	73%
Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Poly	22%
Will there be at least 10 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Poly	5%
Will there be 5 or fewer UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will there be exactly 8 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Poly	3%
Will there be exactly 9 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

73%

Top Probability

$29.55K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026. Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.

Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026.

Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.

The resolution source for t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $29.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $31.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.94)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be 5 or fewer UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $11.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be exactly 8 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be exactly 9 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $995
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be at least 10 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics