Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which Dems will underperform Kamala?

Name: Which Dems will underperform Kamala?
End: 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$10.38K

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Which Dems will underperform Kamala?

Vol

$10.38K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $10.38K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.38K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Tina Kotek underperform Kamala in Oregon?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Tina Kotek underperform Kamala in Oregon?	Poly	92%
Will Troy Jackson underperform Kamala in Maine?	Poly	68%
Will Peggy Flanagan underperform Kamala in Minnesota?	Poly	56%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms underperform Kamala in Georgia?	Poly	52%
Will Kathy Hochul underperform Kamala in New York?	Poly	40%
Will Abdul El-Sayed underperform Kamala in Michigan?	Poly	30%
Will Chris Pappas underperform Kamala in New Hampshire?	Poly	28%
Will Angie Nixon underperform Kamala in Florida?	Poly	25%
Will David Jolly underperform Kamala in Florida?	Poly	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$10.38K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Democratic candidate in a statewide midterm election has an unrounded vote share that is lower than the equivalent vote share earned by Kamala Harris in that state in the 2024 Presidential Election. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which Dems will underperform Kamala?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (23 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Democratic candidate in a statewide midterm election has an unrounded vote share that is lower than the equivalent vote share earned by Kamala Harris in that state in the 2024 Presidential Election. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Democratic candidate in a statewide midterm election has an unrounded vote share that is lower than the equivalent vote share earned by Kamala Harris in that state in the 2024 Pr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $87.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.12)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Chris Pappas underperform Kamala in New Hampshire?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $552
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Angie Nixon underperform Kamala in Florida?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $611
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Peggy Flanagan underperform Kamala in Minnesota?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Troy Jackson underperform Kamala in Maine?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Abdul El-Sayed underperform Kamala in Michigan?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will David Jolly underperform Kamala in Florida?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Keisha Lance Bottoms underperform Kamala in Georgia?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $939
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Tina Kotek underperform Kamala in Oregon?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $886
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Kathy Hochul underperform Kamala in New York?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics