Name: OH-01 Republican Primary Winner
End: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z

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OH-01 Republican Primary Winner | PredictPedia

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4 markets tracked

Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?	Poly	70%
Will Steven Erbeck be the Republican nominee for OH-01?	Poly	23%
Will Holly Adams be the Republican nominee for OH-01?	Poly	6%
Will Rosemary Oglesby-Henry be the Republican nominee for OH-01?	Poly	6%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** OH-01 Republican Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 5, 2026 (37 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any r

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.64)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Holly Adams be the Republican nominee for OH-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Steven Erbeck be the Republican nominee for OH-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $11.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 69.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Rosemary Oglesby-Henry be the Republican nominee for OH-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

36d 11h remaining

May 05, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

26¢

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Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

OH-01 Republican Primary Winner

Markets (4)

Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Steven Erbeck be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Steven Erbeck be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Holly Adams be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Holly Adams be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Rosemary Oglesby-Henry be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Rosemary Oglesby-Henry be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

OH-01 Republican Primary Winner

Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Steven Erbeck be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Steven Erbeck be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Holly Adams be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Holly Adams be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Rosemary Oglesby-Henry be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Will Rosemary Oglesby-Henry be the Republican nominee for OH-01?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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