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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Name: Next Secretary-General of the United Nations
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$98.72K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Vol

$98.72K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $98.72K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $98.72K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Poly	51%
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Poly	32%
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Poly	9%
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?	Poly	9%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$98.72K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General sel

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Secretary-General of the United Nations
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (174 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General selection.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nations Secretary-General sel

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A selection process is currently being held to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations, with the current term set to end on 31 December 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Secretary-General of the United Nations following the 2026 United Nat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $98.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $56.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.74)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $92.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics