This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Andalusia Election Winner

Name: Andalusia Election Winner
End: 2026-05-17T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$36.60K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Andalusia Election Winner

Vol

$36.60K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $36.60K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $36.60K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election?	Poly	99%
Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election?	Poly	1%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win the Andalusia regional election?	Poly	0%
Will Adelante Andalucia (AA) win the Andalusia regional election?	Poly	0%
Will Por Andalucia (PA) win the Andalusia regional election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$36.60K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed par

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Andalusia Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 17, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed par

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.

If the results of this"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $36.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $27.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 17, 2026): Vol $11.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Adelante Andalucia (AA) win the Andalusia regional election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 17, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Por Andalucia (PA) win the Andalusia regional election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 17, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win the Andalusia regional election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 17, 2026): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 17, 2026): Vol $15.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics