Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

Name: Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$77.61K

Events

Markets

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Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $77.61K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $77.61K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?	Poly	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$77.61K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (350 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally noti"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $77.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $27.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.79)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $77.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

349d 15h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

7¢

Polymarket

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Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

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Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)