Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
PM $30.7K
1
1
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
PM $30.7K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 3.2% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes3.2%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $30.7K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether Donald Trump will publicly and unequivocally announce that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or take formal action toward doing so, "such as issuing a directive or formal request," by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves "No" otherwise [1].
The rules set several boundaries. Contingent statements, statements of intent, and informal statements that are not unequivocal do not qualify [1]. If Warsh resigns or formally departs as Chair before a qualifying action, the market resolves "No" immediately [1]. Attempts to remove him from the Board of Governors alone do not qualify [1]. The rules name official information from Trump as the resolution source, though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].
The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rule text states the deadline in Eastern Time, so readers should check that the UTC timestamp matches their intended cutoff.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T00:35:13.079Z [1]. It shows one market on Polymarket with status "active." The quoted prices were Yes at 0.03 and No at 0.97 [1]. These are snapshot values from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities.
The sample covers one provider event with one included market, and it is not a partial sample [1]. Because only one platform and one contract appear, there is no cross-platform comparison here, and no outcome in this record is missing from the sample. The record does not include volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders are involved.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the Yes price is 0.03. It also contains no recent reporting on Warsh or Trump, no statement about any planned action, and no information on how the rule's "credible reporting" clause would be applied in a specific case. The record does not show whether the market has resolved, and it reflects only the time of observation. Readers should check the live contract rules and listed end time before relying on any price, since current status and quotes may have changed.
References
- Polymarket: Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket contract titled "Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?" in the Economy category [1]. The contract asks whether Donald Trump will publicly and unequivocally announce that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or will take formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1]. If no qualifying action occurs by then, the market resolves to "No" [1]. The contract is narrow. Contingent statements, such as "Warsh must step down or lower rates," do not qualify. Neither do statements of intent, such as "I am planning to fire Warsh," or other informal statements that are not unequivocal [1]. The rules also say that attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify [1]. Only his role as Chair is covered. The contract also has an early exit. If Warsh resigns or otherwise formally leaves his role as Chair before any qualifying action, the market resolves immediately to "No" [1]. The listed end time on the provider is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, which corresponds to the December 31, 2026 deadline in Eastern Time [1]. That end time is a contract closing time, not an announced event date. The resolution source is official information from Donald Trump, but the rules state that a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. Resolution therefore depends on what Trump publicly says or does, as judged under these criteria, rather than on a general political assessment. The provider lists the market as active [1]. The contract's price snapshot reflects a moment in time from the provider's record and is not an executable quote or a verified probability. A low Yes price in a snapshot reflects only that market's trading at that time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific, unequivocal step to remove the Federal Reserve Chair happens within a set window. It does not measure general political pressure on monetary policy. Because the rules exclude contingent statements, statements of intent, and removal from the Board of Governors, the market's wording is important for interpreting any price movement [1]. Readers should compare the contract's exact terms with any news story before drawing conclusions about how it might resolve [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a qualifying action?
A qualifying action is a public and unequivocal announcement that Trump is removing Warsh as Fed Chair, or formal action toward doing so, such as a directive or formal request [1].
Would a statement that Warsh must step down count?
No. Contingent statements, such as "Warsh must step down or lower rates," do not qualify [1].
Does an attempt to remove Warsh from the Board of Governors count?
Not on its own. The rules say attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify [1].
What happens if Warsh resigns first?
If Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs as Chair before a qualifying action, the market resolves immediately to "No" [1].
What is the deadline and who determines resolution?
The deadline is December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z [1]. The resolution source is official information from Donald Trump, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?
PM $121.6K · K 72.0K contractsWill Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
Kalshi: Will becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?
Related contracts
Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?
Kalshi: Will becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?
Related contracts
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?
Kalshi: Will becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
PM $51.2K
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?
PM $614.4K · K 60.3K contractsWill the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?
Kalshi: Unemployment rate in Nov 2026? (Exactly 4.5%)
Related contracts
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
Kalshi: Unemployment rate in Nov 2026? (Exactly 4.4%)
Related contracts
Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
Kalshi: Unemployment rate in Nov 2026? (Exactly 4.3%)
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
PM $27.0K · K 42.4K contractsWill the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.11% in October?
Kalshi: Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% in Oct 2026?
Related contracts
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.08% in October?
Kalshi: Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% in Oct 2026?
Related contracts
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% in October?
Kalshi: Will the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% in Oct 2026?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
PM $20.9K · K 28.8K contractsWill the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.92% in October?
Kalshi: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.92% in Oct 2026?
Related contracts
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in October?
Kalshi: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.00% in Oct 2026?
Related contracts
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in October?
Kalshi: Will the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% in Oct 2026?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PM $67.5K · K 380.2K contractsWill US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?
Kalshi: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q4 2026?
Related contracts
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?
Kalshi: Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q3 2026?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.