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Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Name: Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$10.11K

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Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

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Polymarket

markets · $10.11K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.11K

100%

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1 market tracked

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	Poly	13%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (312 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal befo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.71)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $10.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

311d 15h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

13¢

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Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

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