GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

Name: Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?
End: 2027-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$86.43K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?

Vol

$86.43K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $86.43K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $86.43K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

22 markets tracked

Will John Healey be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(22)

Market	Platform	Price
Will John Healey be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	13%
Will Miatta Fahnbulleh be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	10%
Will Heidi Alexander be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	10%
Will Alan Campbell be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	8%
Will Lucy Powell be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	6%
Will Alex Norris be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	6%
Will Stephen Kinnock be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	5%
Will Lisa Nandy be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	5%
Will Angela Rayner be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	4%
Will Yvette Cooper be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	4%
Will Louise Haigh be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	3%
Will Douglas Alexander be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	3%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	3%
Will Wes Streeting be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	2%
Will Jonathan Reynolds be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	2%
Will Angela Eagle be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	2%
Will Ed Miliband be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	2%
Will Angela Smith be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	2%
Will Pat McFadden be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	2%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	2%
Will Anneliese Midgley be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	1%
Will Chris Bryant be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

13%

Top Probability

$86.43K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United King

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2027 (483 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United King

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $86.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $189.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.46)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Louise Haigh be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $301
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will John Healey be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $19.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Ed Miliband be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $976
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Shabana Mahmood be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $15.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Wes Streeting be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $349
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Yvette Cooper be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $571
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Alex Norris be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.1% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Lucy Powell be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Pat McFadden be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $8.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Jonathan Reynolds be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Angela Rayner be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $789
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Heidi Alexander be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Miatta Fahnbulleh be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.6% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Lisa Nandy be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $579
  DATA: [Yes: 4.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.4% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Angela Eagle be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Chris Bryant be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $11.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Douglas Alexander be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $507
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Stephen Kinnock be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.7% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Anneliese Midgley be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Angela Smith be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Alan Campbell be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.2% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Bridget Phillipson be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics