Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?
PM $138.0K
1
22
Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?
PM $138.0K
1
22
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Heidi Alexander at 13.6%.
Polymarket
- Heidi Alexander13.6%
- Jonathan Reynolds11.9%
- Alex Norris11.4%
- Bridget Phillipson7%
- John Healey6.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $138.0K
Reported volume · provider units
22
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify. Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution. If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet. It resolves according to "the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. The listed end time is 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. These two timestamps describe the same moment in different formats.
The wording sets a specific bar. A departure must be "publicly and definitively" announced by the named person, Andy Burnham, or the UK Government or their authorized representatives [1]. Statements that someone is "considering or open to departing," conditional statements, pending offers of resignation, and media reports do not qualify [1]. Temporary leaves and suspensions also do not count [1]. A reader should check these terms before treating any single contract as a measure of general news about the cabinet.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:06:52.302Z [1]. They describe that moment only. Each contract is a separate Yes or No market on one named person. Among the 12 included markets, the highest Yes price is 0.135 for John Healey, followed by 0.1035 for Miatta Fahnbulleh and 0.0695 for Douglas Alexander [1]. The lowest included Yes price is 0.039 for Jonathan Reynolds [1].
The sample is partial. The provider event contains 22 markets, and 12 are included, selected by highest Yes price [1]. The ten omitted markets are not shown, so their prices cannot be inferred from this snapshot, and the included markets should not be read as the full field. Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Volume is not shown here and should not be read as liquidity or trader count.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, whether prices have changed since the observation time, or how much liquidity sits behind each quote. It does not establish the current cabinet roster or any announced departure. The "Other" outcome described in the rules does not appear among the supplied prices [1]. The resolution sources include official information, and "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. Because this sample covers only one provider event, no comparison with other platforms is possible.
References
- Polymarket: Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract asks which individual, from a named list of cabinet members, will be the first to leave the cabinet of Andy Burnham. The market resolves to the first person on the list whose departure from a UK cabinet position is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The listed end time in the provider data is 2028-01-01T04:59:00Z, which corresponds to that same deadline. The deadline is a closing rule for announcements, not a date on which any departure is scheduled or expected [1]. The rules set a high bar for what counts. A departure qualifies when Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the person has ceased or will cease to hold a UK cabinet position. The announcement qualifies even if the person leaves the post later. Resignations, removals, and other departures announced through other means also count [1]. An announced departure must be intended to take effect within 18 months of the announcement. Statements that a person is considering leaving, conditional statements, offers of resignation that still need acceptance or have been refused, media reports of plans, and remarks made in jest do not qualify. Statements by anyone other than the person, the governing authority, or their authorized representatives also do not qualify [1]. Several other cases are handled separately. Temporary leaves, dated or indefinite suspensions, and administrative leaves do not count. An announcement that someone will stay in the cabinet under a different title or assignment does not count either. Whether someone attends cabinet meetings has no bearing on the market [1]. If a person has a fixed term with a scheduled end date, only an announcement that they will leave before that term ends qualifies. If someone formally leaves before their term ends without a qualifying announcement, the market can still resolve to them if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the deadline [1]. If several people are announced to leave at the same time, the market resolves to whoever actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, it resolves to the person whose last name comes first alphabetically [1]. If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or if no one is officially announced to leave the cabinet by the deadline, the market resolves to Other [1]. The primary resolution sources are official statements from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The provider event lists 22 candidate markets, but this sample includes only 12 of them. The included markets are chosen by the highest finite Yes price, with volume as a tiebreaker, and missing or invalid prices rank last. The sample therefore does not show the full field, and the omitted markets should not be assumed to have lower prices [1]. Prices are snapshots taken at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and volume is not a measure of liquidity or of how many traders are involved.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether, and which, named cabinet member will have an official, definitive departure announced before the deadline. It does not measure whether a departure will actually happen on any particular date, since an announcement can qualify even when the person leaves office later [1]. Because the rules exclude considerations, temporary absences, and unofficial reports, the contract is narrower than general speculation about cabinet changes. Its outcome depends on the precise wording of an announcement and on the order in which announced departures take effect [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as an official announcement of departure?
A qualifying announcement must come from the cabinet member, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives, and must be public and definitive. It must be intended to take effect within 18 months. Considering a departure, conditional wording, pending resignation offers, and media reports do not qualify [1].
Do temporary leaves or suspensions count?
No. Temporary leaves of absence, dated or indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, and other temporary changes to someone's duties do not qualify [1].
What happens if two people leave at the same time?
The market resolves to the person who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, it resolves to the person whose last name comes first alphabetically [1].
When does the market resolve to Other?
It resolves to Other if Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or if no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet by the deadline [1].
Does the price shown mean the probability of a departure?
No. The displayed prices are snapshots taken at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the sample shown includes only some of the candidate markets in the provider event [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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