Tweet Markets

#Definition

A tweet market is a prediction market that resolves based on social media activity, typically whether a specific person will post content meeting certain criteria on platforms like X (formerly Twitter). These markets predict human communication behavior rather than external events.

Examples include "Will [public figure] tweet about [topic] this week?" or "Will [company account] announce [product] on social media before the press release?" Tweet markets turn social media activity itself into a tradeable event.

#Why It Matters in Prediction Markets

Tweet markets represent a distinct category of prediction: forecasting intentional human communication. They matter for several reasons:

Social media as news source

Major announcements, policy statements, and market-moving information increasingly appear first on social media. Tweet markets allow traders to speculate on and prepare for these communications.

Celebrity and political prediction

Public figures' social media behavior is itself newsworthy. Markets on whether politicians will make certain statements or celebrities will address controversies aggregate collective forecasts of intentional behavior.

Signal extraction

Tweet markets can reveal information about subjects' intentions. If a market on "Will CEO tweet about acquisition?" rises sharply, it may signal insider knowledge about upcoming announcements.

Resolution clarity challenges

Social media creates unique resolution challenges: deleted tweets, ambiguous wording, quote-tweets versus original posts, and platform changes all complicate market design.

#How It Works

#Market Structure

Tweet markets specify:

1. The account: Which social media account(s) count
2. The content criteria: What the post must contain or address
3. The timeframe: When the post must appear
4. The platform: Which social media platform (X, Instagram, etc.)
5. Edge cases: How to handle deleted posts, edits, replies, and retweets

#Resolution Criteria Examples

Specific topic: "Will @[account] tweet about [keyword/topic] before [date]?"

• Resolution: Yes if any tweet contains specified keyword or clearly addresses topic

Announcement type: "Will [company] announce [product] on Twitter before traditional media?"

• Resolution: Compares timestamp of first social media post vs. first press coverage

Engagement threshold: "Will @[account]'s next tweet get 10,000+ likes within 24 hours?"

• Resolution: Based on engagement metrics at specified time

Frequency: "Will [account] tweet more than 20 times this week?"

• Resolution: Count of original tweets (excluding retweets) during period

/**
 * Verifies if a tweet meets market criteria.
 * 
 * @param tweetText - The content of the tweet
 * @param requiredKeyword - Keyword that must be present
 * @param isRetweet - Boolean flag if it's a retweet
 * @returns True if criteria met
 */
function verifyTweetCriteria(tweetText, requiredKeyword, isRetweet) {
  // Most markets exclude retweets
  if (isRetweet) return false;
  
  // Check for keyword (case-insensitive)
  const normalizedText = tweetText.toLowerCase();
  const normalizedKeyword = requiredKeyword.toLowerCase();
  
  return normalizedText.includes(normalizedKeyword);
}

// Example
const tweet = "Excited to announce our new product!";
const match = verifyTweetCriteria(tweet, "announce", false);
// Result: true

#Numerical Example

A market asks: "Will the President tweet about cryptocurrency this month?"

A trader estimates:

• 30% base rate the topic comes up organically
• 20% chance a crypto-related news event prompts a response
• Combined estimate after accounting for overlap: 40%

Market price: $0.50

Expected Value (buying No at $0.50) = 0.60 × $1.00 - $0.50 = $0.10

The trader buys No, believing the market overestimates the probability of a crypto tweet.

#Examples

#Example 1: Political Communication

A market predicts: "Will the President tweet about the Supreme Court decision within 24 hours of the ruling?"

Traders analyze:

• Historical response patterns to similar rulings
• Current political strategy and messaging priorities
• Whether the administration prefers formal statements over tweets
• Timing of the ruling relative to other news

#Example 2: Corporate Announcements

A market asks: "Will Tesla's official Twitter announce a new product before year-end?"

Traders consider:

• Production timelines and supply chain signals
• Historical announcement patterns
• CEO's personal account activity as a leading indicator
• Competitive pressures that might accelerate announcements

#Example 3: Celebrity Controversy Response

Following a public incident involving a celebrity, a market asks: "Will [celebrity] tweet an apology within 48 hours?"

Traders evaluate:

• PR crisis management norms
• The celebrity's past response patterns
• Severity and nature of the incident
• Whether legal counsel would advise silence

#Example 4: Earnings Tweet

A market predicts: "Will [CEO] tweet about earnings within 1 hour of the earnings call?"

This market captures the increasingly common practice of executives commenting on social media immediately after formal announcements.

#Risks, Pitfalls, and Misunderstandings

Deleted tweet ambiguity

If a matching tweet is posted then quickly deleted, does the market resolve Yes? Different platforms handle this differently. Always check resolution rules for deleted content.

#Common Resolution Criteria

Definition of "about"

What counts as tweeting "about" a topic? A direct statement is clear, but what about oblique references, retweets of others' commentary, or replies? Ambiguous criteria create resolution disputes.

Account control changes

Social media accounts can change hands, be hacked, or be managed by teams. A "tweet from @[account]" might not reflect the intended person's decision.

Platform changes

Social media platforms evolve. Twitter became X; features change; accounts get suspended. Markets running over long timeframes face platform risk.

Subject awareness

If the person knows about the market, they might strategically tweet or avoid tweeting to influence outcomes. This is especially relevant for large markets on prominent figures.

Timestamp disputes

Time zone ambiguity, platform timestamp accuracy, and the difference between tweet creation and visibility can create edge cases.

#Practical Tips for Traders

• Study historical patterns: Most public figures have consistent social media habits. Review their posting history for frequency, topics, and timing patterns

• Monitor related accounts: Staff, family, and organizational accounts often signal what the main account will discuss

• Watch for triggering events: News events, market movements, or controversies often prompt social media responses. Anticipate what might trigger a tweet

• Consider the advisor layer: High-profile accounts are often managed by teams or influenced by PR counsel. Think about institutional incentives, not just personal inclination

• Read resolution criteria precisely: "Tweet" might include or exclude replies, quote-tweets, or threads. "About [topic]" requires clear definition of topical relevance

• Factor in deletion probability: Some figures frequently delete posts. Consider whether a quickly-deleted tweet would count for resolution

• Account for platform outages: Social media platforms occasionally have technical issues. Understand how the market handles platform-side problems

#Risk: The "Deleted Tweet" Problem

A common dispute in tweet markets is: What if the tweet is deleted?

• Rules Matter: Most markets have a rule like "Must be up for 24 hours" or "Must be visible at resolution time."
• Scenario: Elon Musk tweets "DOGE", the market spikes to 99%, then he deletes it 5 minutes later. If the rule requires it to be up at resolution, YES holders lose everything.

Always check the specific deletion policy before trading.

#Deleted Tweet Resolution Logic

#Related Terms

• Prediction Market
• Mention Market
• Announcer Market
• Opinion Market
• Resolution Criteria
• Resolution Source

#FAQ

#How is a tweet market different from a mention market?

A mention market typically focuses on whether someone will say a specific word during a defined event (speech, interview, broadcast). A tweet market focuses on social media posting, which is more spontaneous, ongoing, and subject to different constraints. Both predict human communication, but the contexts and resolution mechanics differ.

#What happens if the account is hacked or suspended?

This depends on market rules. Well-designed markets specify handling for account compromise, suspension, or transfer. Typically, hacked accounts don't count (posts must reflect genuine user intent), and suspended accounts may void the market if the suspension prevents the tweet from occurring.

#Can someone manipulate a tweet market by paying the person to tweet?

Theoretically, yes, though this would require the person to accept payment and be willing to post. For major public figures, this is unlikely; for minor accounts, it's more plausible. Markets on accounts controlled by parties with financial interests in the outcome are higher risk.

#Are tweet markets legal?

Tweet markets are generally legal where prediction markets are legal, as they're just a specific type of event contract. They don't constitute insider trading (social media posts aren't securities) but may face the same regulatory restrictions as other prediction markets in various jurisdictions.

#Why do people trade tweet markets?

Traders may have genuine interest in forecasting public figures' behavior, use tweet markets to hedge exposure to announcements (e.g., a crypto holder betting on a skeptical government tweet), seek entertainment value, or believe they have superior insight into a person's communication patterns.