This contract is a Kalshi event titled "Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/9 - 11/15)" [1]. It asks about the busiest single day for transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz during the week of November 9 to November 15, 2026, as counted by the IMF PortWatch data that the rules name [1]. Each threshold in the event is its own yes-or-no question. For example, one market asks whether the highest single-day number will be more than 3, another whether it will be more than 4, and so on through 10 [1]. The settlement rule is specific. The Expiration Value is the highest single-day count from November 9 to November 15, 2026. If that figure is above the stated threshold X, the market resolves Yes [1]. The rules say the market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM after the period ends, once complete data is available [1]. A contract's resolution therefore depends on the count for the whole window, not on traffic on any one day during the week and not on how the strait looks at the time a price is observed. A separate Wikipedia excerpt describes the background that makes this count unusual. It states that shipping through the strait has been largely blocked by Iran since 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched an air war against Iran [2]. It also says the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings forbidding passage, boarded and attacked merchant ships, and laid sea mines in the strait [2]. The same excerpt notes that before the war, about 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade and 20% of its liquefied natural gas passed through the strait [2]. These statements are described in that Wikipedia article as of its retrieval, and they do not by themselves establish current traffic levels for November 2026.

Historical Context

The Wikipedia excerpt on the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis says that shipping has been largely blocked by Iran since 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched an air war against Iran [2]. It also reports that from 13 April to 29 May 2026 the United States simultaneously blockaded Iranian ports [2]. A second Wikipedia excerpt, on the economic impact of the 2026 Iran war, quotes the International Energy Agency as describing the disruption as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" [3]. That article also compares the episode with earlier oil shocks. It says that in several past cases the initial price spike proved larger than the eventual sustained increase, and that oil prices returned to pre-crisis levels within months after some earlier conflicts [3]. These are historical comparisons drawn from the cited sources, and the article does not in the excerpt predict how the November 2026 transit count will turn out [3].

Frequently Asked Questions