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Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?

Name: Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
End: 2026-12-08T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$16.16K

Events

Markets

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Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?

Vol

$16.16K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $16.16K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $16.16K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

19 markets tracked

Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?	Poly	44%
Will a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina by November 30, 2026?	Poly	19%
Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?	Poly	17%
Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?	Poly	14%
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii by November 30, 2026?	Poly	14%
Will a hurricane make landfall in South Carolina by November 30, 2026?	Poly	10%
Will a hurricane make landfall in New Jersey by November 30, 2026?	Poly	10%
Will a hurricane make landfall in Georgia by November 30, 2026?	Poly	10%
Will a hurricane make landfall in Delaware by November 30, 2026?	Poly	9%
Will a hurricane make landfall in Massachusetts by November 30, 2026?	Poly	8%
Will a hurricane make landfall in Rhode Island by November 30, 2026?	Poly	8%
Will a hurricane make landfall in Maryland by November 30, 2026?	Poly	7%
Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?	Poly	7%
Will a hurricane make landfall in New Hampshire by November 30, 2026?	Poly	6%
Will a hurricane make landfall in Maine by November 30, 2026?	Poly	6%
Will a hurricane make landfall in Virginia by November 30, 2026?	Poly	5%
Will a hurricane make landfall in New York by November 30, 2026?	Poly	5%
Will a hurricane make landfall in Connecticut by November 30, 2026?	Poly	4%
Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

44%

Top Probability

$16.16K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No". A hurricane landfall is

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 8, 2026 (94 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".

A hurricane landfall is

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurrican"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.17)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $168
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $310
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $501
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $704
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $429
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will a hurricane make landfall in Georgia by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will a hurricane make landfall in South Carolina by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $308
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will a hurricane make landfall in Virginia by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $653
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will a hurricane make landfall in Maryland by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.1% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will a hurricane make landfall in Delaware by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $461
  DATA: [Yes: 8.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will a hurricane make landfall in New Jersey by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 9.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.1% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will a hurricane make landfall in New York by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $852
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.1% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will a hurricane make landfall in Connecticut by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $440
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will a hurricane make landfall in Rhode Island by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will a hurricane make landfall in Massachusetts by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.7% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will a hurricane make landfall in New Hampshire by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $988
  DATA: [Yes: 6.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.6% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will a hurricane make landfall in Maine by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate