Tlaxcala Governor Election Winner
PM $89.9K
1
15
Tlaxcala Governor Election Winner
PM $89.9K
1
15
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera at 68.6%.
Polymarket
- Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera68.6%
- Floria María Hernández Hernández2.9%
- Anabell Ávalos Zempoalteca2.1%
- Alfonso Sánchez García1.4%
- Irma Yordana Garay Loredo0.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $89.9K
Reported volume · provider units
15
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Tlaxcala on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Tlaxcala and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Tlaxcala and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event asks which candidate wins the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election. The source says the market "will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify." [1] The excerpt says gubernatorial elections are "currently scheduled to be held in Tlaxcala on June 6, 2027." [1] This describes a scheduled date in the source, not a confirmed announcement. If results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other." [1] The listed end time is 2027-06-07T03:59:00.000Z. [1] That timestamp is a listed close, not the moment results become known or the market settles.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:30:34.659Z, so they describe that earlier observation rather than live conditions. [1] The highest Yes price in the sample belongs to Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera at 0.619, with No at 0.381. [1] The other included candidates show Yes prices from 0.0015 to 0.06. [1] Each contract is priced separately. These figures are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they should not be merged with prices from other platforms or other events.
The sample is partial. Twelve of the 15 markets in this Polymarket event are included. [1] The selection favored higher Yes prices, but the three omitted markets have no prices in the evidence, so their levels cannot be inferred. [1]
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do. It also does not report trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants, so volume should not be read as depth or consensus. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting and, if the situation is ambiguous, on official results from Tlaxcala and Mexican electoral bodies. [1] The outcome is not known from this evidence. A price difference between separate contracts does not by itself indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Tlaxcala Governor Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This Polymarket event asks which candidate will win the 2027 gubernatorial election in Tlaxcala, Mexico. The provider describes the election as scheduled for June 6, 2027 [1]. A Wikipedia entry on the 2027 Mexican local elections states the same date and says that voters will elect 17 governors, members of 31 local congresses, and numerous municipal authorities, concurrently with the 2027 federal elections [2]. The contract rules say the market "will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial elections." They also state that "Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify" [1]. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the rules say the market will resolve solely on official results reported by government sources of Tlaxcala and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Tlaxcala and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico [1]. The provider lists an end time of 2027-06-07T03:59:00Z for the individual contracts [1]. That listed time is a contract setting, not a confirmed announcement of results. The event contains one contract per named candidate. Each contract has Yes and No outcomes. The Yes price is a snapshot of trading activity at the observation time, not a verified probability of that candidate winning. Each contract also carries its own volume, which measures trading activity rather than liquidity or the number of traders.
Historical Context
Tlaxcala has held gubernatorial elections before. Wikipedia reports that gubernatorial elections were held in fourteen Mexican states on Sunday, July 4, 2010, including Tlaxcala [3]. The supplied sources do not describe the results of those elections or the history of the 2027 race beyond its scheduling.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which candidate wins the 2027 gubernatorial election in Tlaxcala under the stated rules [1]. Its outcome depends on the official results and credible reporting described in those rules, and on the election taking place on the scheduled date [1][2]. The market's sample covers only some of the candidate contracts in the saved event, so it does not show the full field of possible winners.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Would an interim or caretaker governor count as the winner?
No. The contract rules state that "Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify" [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
How will the market be resolved?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves solely on official results from government sources of Tlaxcala and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Tlaxcala and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico [1].
When is the election scheduled?
The provider says gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled for June 6, 2027 [1], and Wikipedia gives the same date for the 2027 Mexican local elections [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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