This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Bahia Governor Election Winner

Name: Bahia Governor Election Winner
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.00K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Bahia Governor Election Winner

Vol

$5.00K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.00K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.00K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will João Roma win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will João Roma win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Poly	61%
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Poly	37%
Will Kleber Rosa win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Poly	6%
Will Rui Costa win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Poly	4%
Will José Carlos Aleluia win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Poly	0%
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Poly	0%
Will Bruno Soares Reis win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

61%

Top Probability

$5.00K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bahia Governor Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (87 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $15.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.31)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $609
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will José Carlos Aleluia win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $330
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Rui Costa win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $617
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $324
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will João Roma win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Kleber Rosa win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Bruno Soares Reis win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $488
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics