#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?
PM $6.9K
1
6
#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?
PM $6.9K
1
6
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is TikTok Pro - Events at 72%.
Polymarket
- TikTok Pro - Events72%
- Muse from Meta26%
- Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace10%
- Capital One Mobile2.5%
- ChatGPT1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $6.9K
Reported volume · provider units
6
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T12:00:06.991Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The provider event asks which app will rank first among free iPhone apps in the US Apple App Store overall Top Charts. The rules state that the market "will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States" at "12:00 PM ET on the specified date" [1]. If the chart is unavailable at that time, the market "may remain open for up to 48 hours," and if data stays unavailable, it resolves "according to the last published ranking" [1].
The saved event lists an end time of 2026-10-31T03:59:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is a listed close time in the provider record, not the 12:00 PM ET check described in the rules, so readers should treat the rule text and the listed time as separate pieces of information. The evidence does not explain how the two relate.
Reading the snapshot
The prices come from an observation at 2026-10-29T12:00:06.991Z, retrieved at 12:48:30.087Z [1]. They describe that moment only and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Six app-specific Yes prices were recorded: TikTok Pro - Events at 0.72, Muse from Meta at 0.26, Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace at 0.10, Capital One Mobile at 0.025, ChatGPT at 0.01, and Google Gemini at 0.005 [1]. Only one app can hold the number one ranking, so these outcomes are mutually exclusive, yet their Yes prices sum to 1.12. The snapshot therefore should not be read as a normalized distribution of probabilities. Each contract is a separate quote.
The sample includes all six saved markets for this event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1]. That does not mean every possible app is represented. The provider notes that "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Apps absent from the record cannot be assumed to have lower prices.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include any other platform, so no cross-platform comparison is possible, and differences in wording or close times should not be treated as arbitrage. The evidence also gives no explanation for why prices stood where they did, no information on the number of traders, and no news. Trading volume is not included in this summary and would not indicate liquidity even if it were. Anything after the retrieval time is unknown from this record.
References
- Polymarket: #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T12:00:06.991Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?" The contract rules say the market resolves according to the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date [1]. The rules name the chart the resolution source, and they point to the App Store chart at apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone for that list [1]. The contract therefore asks which free app holds the top position at one stated moment, not which app is most popular over a whole day or week. The rules also address a missing chart. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, the market may remain open for up to 48 hours so the data can become available. If the data remains unavailable after that, the market resolves according to the last published ranking [1]. Under these rules, the chart at the stated time is the resolution basis, with a fallback to the last published ranking if the chart cannot be read. The event page lists an end time of 2026-10-31T03:59:00.000Z [1]. That listed end time is a separate timestamp from the 12:00 PM ET ranking time in the rules. Read the rules, not the listed end time, to understand what determines the outcome. The listed end time is not an announced event, and it does not show when the ranking was checked. The App Store background helps explain the setting. Wikipedia describes the App Store as an app marketplace developed and maintained by Apple for mobile and desktop apps on its iOS, macOS and iPadOS operating systems, where users browse and download approved apps [3]. The Apple TV app is a separate product described as a media player for viewing television shows and films [2]. Each contract in this event concerns a specific named app's position on the free-app chart, so the names in the market titles should be read as the apps being compared, not as a claim about their relative standing beyond what the chart shows.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single ranking outcome: which free iPhone app is first in the United States on the overall Top Charts under Free Apps at 12:00 PM ET on the specified date [1]. Anyone reading a price for one of the named apps is reading a market snapshot of how traders valued that outcome at the time it was recorded. It is not an executable quote and not a verified probability that the app will rank first. The contract does not measure downloads, revenue, daily active users, or ranking across other stores or countries. Each related market in this event asks the same question about a different app, so the outcomes are not interchangeable with a general ranking of app popularity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly determines the outcome of this contract?
The market resolves according to the app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date [1].
What happens if the App Store chart is unavailable at the resolution time?
If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, the market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, the market resolves according to the last published ranking [1].
Is the listed end time the same as the ranking time?
No. The listed end time is 2026-10-31T03:59:00.000Z [1], while the rules tie the ranking to 12:00 PM ET on the specified date [1]. The rules, not the end timestamp, describe the ranking check.
Where can someone see the chart used for resolution?
The rules say to open the Apps tab in the US iOS App Store, scroll to Top Free Apps, and select See All, then look under Free Apps in the Top Charts section. The rules also link the chart directly at apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone [1].
What does a price on this contract represent?
A price is a snapshot of market trading at the time it was recorded. It is not an executable quote or a verified probability, and a difference between two related contracts does not by itself indicate an opportunity.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?
PM $13.6K
Top US Netflix Show this week?
K 7.3K contracts
#2 US Netflix Show this week?
K 3.9K contracts
Next Gemini Pro model release
PM $2.00M · K 67.4K contractsWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Dec 1, 2026?
Same question, fine print differs
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Nov 1, 2026?
Same question, fine print differs
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 26 and November 1, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Nov 1, 2026?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
When will Anthropic release Claude 6?
PM $61.1K · K 31.2K contractsClaude 6 released by December 31, 2027?
Kalshi: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027?
Related contracts
Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026?
Related contracts
Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?
Kalshi: Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/26 - 11/1)
K 28.3K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.