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Events
GroupKALSHI

When will the first listed Democrat announce a 2028 presidential run?

When will the first listed Democrat announce a 2028 presidential run?
Vol

K 4.9K contracts

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Events

1

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Markets

8

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 97.5%.

Kalshi

  1. Before Jan 1, 202897.5%
  2. Before Sep 1, 202797.5%
  3. Before Jun 1, 202796%
  4. Before Apr 1, 202794.5%
  5. Before Mar 1, 202793%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 4.9K contracts

Reported volume ยท provider units

8

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

2028 Democratic presidential nomination If at least one of the listed Democrats announced a run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Announcing a run means a listed person publicly announces, themselves or through their official campaign, that they are running for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. X later withdrawal does not undo an announcement. Filing with the Federal Election Commission without a public announcement, forming an exploratory committee, saying they are considering a run, and a run for another party's nomination or as an independent do NOT count. The listed Democrats are the following 44 people, and no one else will be added: Andy Beshear, Hunter Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Hillary Clinton, Roy Cooper, Jasmine Crockett, Mark Cuban, Abdul El-Sayed, Rahm Emanuel, Shawn Fain, John Fetterman, Ruben Gallego, Kamala Harris, David Jolly, Mark Kelly, Ro Khanna, Amy Klobuchar, Mitch Landrieu, Wes Moore, Chris Murphy, Phil Murphy, Gavin Newsom, Beto O'Rourke, Michelle Obama, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Dean Phillips, Graham Platner, Jared Polis, J.B. Pritzker, Gina Raimondo, Josh Shapiro, Mikie Sherrill, Elissa Slotkin, Stephen A. Smith, Abigail Spanberger, Jon Stewart, James Talarico, Chris Van Hollen, Tim Walz, Raphael Warnock, Elizabeth Warren and Gretchen Whitmer. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, e.g., wire services, only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

PM $17.4K
Will Andy Beshear be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?Yes 24%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?Yes 19%
Will Ro Khanna be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?Yes 19%
+8 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2029 UTC
KalshiPolitics
When will the first listed Republican announce a 2028 presidential run?

When will the first listed Republican announce a 2028 presidential run?

K 1.9K contracts
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 96%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination before Sep 1, 2027?Yes 94.5%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least one of the listed Republicans announced a run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination before Jun 1, 2027?Yes 91%
+4 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Who will be the first Republican listed to announce a presidential run?

Who will be the first Republican listed to announce a presidential run?

K 1.8K contracts
Will J.D. Vance be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Yes 18%
Will Ron DeSantis be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Yes 14.5%
Will Marco Rubio be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Yes 13%
+34 moreNext deadline Nov 14, 2028 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?

Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?

PM $19.6K
Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?Yes 38%
Will Ron DeSantis be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?Yes 28.5%
Will J.D. Vance be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?Yes 24.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Dec 31, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a presidential run?

Will Chris Van Hollen announce a presidential run?

K 19.7K contracts
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 48.5%
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?Yes 46.5%
Will Chris Van Hollen announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 45.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will Chris Christie announce a presidential run?

Will Chris Christie announce a presidential run?

K 16.3K contracts
Will Chris Christie announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 55.5%
Will Chris Christie announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?Yes 45%
Will Chris Christie announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 38.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC

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