GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/6 - 7/12)

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Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/6 - 7/12)

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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9 markets tracked

Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will there be more than 125 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?	Kalshi	77%
Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?	Kalshi	45%
Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?	Kalshi	21%
Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will there be more than 250 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will there be more than 225 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will there be more than 275 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

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About This Event

7/6 - 7/12 If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/6 - 7/12)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 7/6 - 7/12

If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 300 from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no e"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will there be more than 275 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will there be more than 250 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will there be more than 225 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will there be more than 125 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/6 - 7/12)

Volume$0.00

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KALSHI

Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHITech

Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 100 from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no e

KALSHI

Will there be more than 125 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.5¢No 23.5¢

KALSHITech

Will there be more than 125 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 125 from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no e

KALSHI

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.5¢No 55.5¢

KALSHITech

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no e

KALSHI

Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHITech

Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 175 from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no e

KALSHI

Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHITech

Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 200 from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no e

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Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/6 - 7/12)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/6 - 7/12)

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Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/6 - 7/12)

Markets (9)

Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 125 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 125 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

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Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/6 - 7/12)

Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 125 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 125 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?

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