GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

South Carolina Presidential Democratic Primary Winner

Name: South Carolina Presidential Democratic Primary Winner
End: 2028-01-22T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$12.41K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

South Carolina Presidential Democratic Primary Winner

Vol

$12.41K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.41K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.41K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

20 markets tracked

Will Kamala Harris win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(20)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Kamala Harris win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	14%
Will Raphael Warnock win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	14%
Will Jon Ossoff win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	11%
Will Michelle Obama win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	8%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	8%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	7%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	6%
Will Josh Shapiro win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	6%
Will Jon Stewart win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	6%
Will Ro Khanna win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	5%
Will Cory Booker win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	5%
Will Andy Beshear win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	4%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	4%
Will Wes Moore win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	4%
Will Mark Kelly win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	4%
Will Bernie Sanders win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	2%
Will James Talarico win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	2%
Will Roy Cooper win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

14%

Top Probability

$12.41K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

South Carolina is expected to hold its Democratic presidential primary for the 2028 presidential election on January 22, 2028. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary, caucus, or other official process by which the public directs the selection of delegates for the 2028 Democratic Convention. If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vot

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** South Carolina Presidential Democratic Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 22, 2028 (505 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** South Carolina is expected to hold its Democratic presidential primary for the 2028 presidential election on January 22, 2028. 

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary, caucus, or other official process by which the public directs the selection of delegates for the 2028 Democratic Convention. 

If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vot

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"South Carolina is expected to hold its Democratic presidential primary for the 2028 presidential election on January 22, 2028. 

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Democratic primary, caucus, or other official process by which the public directs t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $96.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.13)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Gavin Newsom win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jon Ossoff win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $175
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $281
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Kamala Harris win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Pete Buttigieg win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $178
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Josh Shapiro win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $151
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Andy Beshear win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $156
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Mark Kelly win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $536
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Rahm Emanuel win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $181
  DATA: [Yes: 5.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.4% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Jon Stewart win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $257
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Ro Khanna win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $156
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.1% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Wes Moore win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $175
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will James Talarico win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $206
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will J.B. Pritzker win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $241
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Michelle Obama win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $111
  DATA: [Yes: 8.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Stephen A. Smith win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $146
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Bernie Sanders win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $258
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Roy Cooper win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $156
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Raphael Warnock win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $391
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Cory Booker win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 22, 2028): Vol $362
  DATA: [Yes: 4.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics