GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?

Name: Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
End: 2026-09-20T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$14.33K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?

Vol

$14.33K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $14.33K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.33K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?	Poly	80%
Will Enrico Schult be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?	Poly	8%
Will Daniel Peters be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?	Poly	7%
Will Leif-Erik Holm be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?	Poly	2%
Will Jakob Schirmer be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?	Poly	1%
Will Simone Oldenburg be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?	Poly	1%
Will Claudia Müller be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

80%

Top Probability

$14.33K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Ministerpräsident will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Ministerpräsident takes office by M

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 20, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Ministerpräsident will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Ministerpräsident takes office by M

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following the specified elections.

To count for"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $62.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.23)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $11.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Leif-Erik Holm be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Daniel Peters be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $440
  DATA: [Yes: 7.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Simone Oldenburg be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $367
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Claudia Müller be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $373
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jakob Schirmer be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $440
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Enrico Schult be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $421
  DATA: [Yes: 8.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics