Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

California permitted housing units in 2026

Total Volume

$29.17K

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Markets

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California permitted housing units in 2026

Vol

$29.17K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $29.17K

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $29.17K

100%

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6 markets tracked

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 100,000?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 100,000?	Kalshi	97%
Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 105,000?	Kalshi	93%
Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 110,000?	Kalshi	61%
Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 115,000?	Kalshi	15%
Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 120,000?	Kalshi	8%
Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 125,000?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

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97%

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$29.17K

Volume

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About This Event

2026 If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents issued. It includes units in single-family and multifamily structures. Resolution uses the first U.S. Census Bureau state-level release containing complete January–December 2026 data; subsequent revisions do not affect

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California permitted housing units in 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents issued. It includes units in single-family and multifamily structures. Resolution uses the first U.S. Census Bureau state-level release containing complete January–December 2026 data; subsequent revisions do not affect

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 125,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $29.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 125,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 100,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 120,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 115,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $9.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 110,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 105,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 3, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

California permitted housing units in 2026

Volume$29.17K

Markets6

6 of 6

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KALSHI

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 100,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 100,000?

If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 100,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents

KALSHI

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 105,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 105,000?

If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 105,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents

KALSHI

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 110,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 110,000?

If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 110,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents

KALSHI

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 115,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 115,000?

If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 115,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents

KALSHI

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 120,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 120,000?

If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 120,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents

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California permitted housing units in 2026

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Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 100,000?

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Events (1)

California permitted housing units in 2026

Markets (6)

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 100,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 100,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 105,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 105,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 110,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 110,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 115,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 115,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 120,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 120,000?

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Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 100,000?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

California permitted housing units in 2026

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 100,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 100,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 105,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 105,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 110,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 110,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 115,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 115,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 120,000?

Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 120,000?

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