Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Bozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026

Total Volume

$47.60K

Events

Markets

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Bozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026

Vol

$47.60K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $47.60K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $47.60K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units?	Kalshi	98%
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,100 units?	Kalshi	98%
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,250 units?	Kalshi	93%
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units?	Kalshi	56%
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,550 units?	Kalshi	39%
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,700 units?	Kalshi	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$47.60K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2026 If the Census Bureau reports that the number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in calendar year 2026 is above X units, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the Total housing-units-authorized figure for the Bozeman, MT CBSA in the Census Building Permits Survey’s final annual 2026 data. All residential structure types are included: one-unit, two-unit, three- and four-unit, and structures with five or more units. Use the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the Census Bureau reports that the number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in calendar year 2026 is above X units, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the Total housing-units-authorized figure for the Bozeman, MT CBSA in the Census Building Permits Survey’s final annual 2026 data. All residential structure types are included: one-unit, two-unit, three- and four-unit, and structures with five or more units. Use the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Census Bureau reports that the number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in calendar year 2026 is above 1,700 units, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the Total housing-units-authorized figure for the B"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $47.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,700 units?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 7, 2027): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 7, 2027): Vol $9.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,550 units?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 7, 2027): Vol $966
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 7, 2027): Vol $15.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,250 units?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 7, 2027): Vol $10.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,100 units?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 7, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Bozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026

Volume$47.60K

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units?

If the Census Bureau reports that the number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in calendar year 2026 is above 950 units, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the Total housing-units-authorized figure for the B

KALSHI

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,100 units?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,100 units?

If the Census Bureau reports that the number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in calendar year 2026 is above 1,100 units, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the Total housing-units-authorized figure for the B

KALSHI

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,250 units?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,250 units?

If the Census Bureau reports that the number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in calendar year 2026 is above 1,250 units, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the Total housing-units-authorized figure for the B

KALSHI

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 55.5¢No 44.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units?

If the Census Bureau reports that the number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in calendar year 2026 is above 1,400 units, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the Total housing-units-authorized figure for the B

KALSHI

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,550 units?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.5¢No 61.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,550 units?

If the Census Bureau reports that the number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in calendar year 2026 is above 1,550 units, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the Total housing-units-authorized figure for the B

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66¢

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Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Bozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026

Markets (6)

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,100 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,100 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,250 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,250 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,550 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,550 units?

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Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Bozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,100 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,100 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,250 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,250 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,550 units?

Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,550 units?

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