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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Name: São Paulo Governor Election Winner
End: 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.09K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Vol

$5.09K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.09K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.09K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Poly	79%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Poly	22%
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Poly	2%
Will Erika Hilton win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Poly	1%
Will Márcio França win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

79%

Top Probability

$5.09K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resol

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** São Paulo Governor Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (86 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resol

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $52.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.10)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Márcio França win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $184
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Erika Hilton win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $212
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $265
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics