Ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 16?
PM $274.69
1
6
PM $274.69
1
6
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 170+ at 88%.
Polymarket
- 170+88%
- 175+84%
- 190+49%
- 180+48.5%
- 185+48.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $274.69
Reported volume · provider units
6
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event asks how many ship transit calls will be recorded through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in one week. The market "will resolve to 'Yes' if the total number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from November 16, 2026 to November 22, 2026, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least the number specified in the title" [1]. The total is the sum of daily figures, and the source counts transit calls by container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships [1].
Each market in the event is a separate threshold question. The titles ask about 170, 175, 180, 185, 190, and 195 or more ships [1]. A "Yes" contract pays only if the weekly total meets its threshold.
Resolution depends on IMF PortWatch publishing data for every date in the period. If data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after the final date, the market resolves on the most recent data published at that time [1]. The listed end time is Nov 23, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 12:00:05 UTC on November 14, 2026, and retrieved at 12:53:17 UTC the same day [1]. They describe that moment only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The six Yes prices were 0.88 for 170 or more, 0.84 for 175 or more, 0.49 for 190 or more, 0.485 for 180 or more, 0.485 for 185 or more, and 0.21 for 195 or more. The 190 or more price sits slightly above the 180 and 185 prices, which is a feature of this snapshot and does not by itself indicate a trading opportunity. Reported volume for this event was $275, in US dollars. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or of how many people traded.
The sample includes all six saved markets for this Polymarket event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1]. The sample warning still applies: the saved markets do not establish that every possible outcome has been listed.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not show how many traders hold each view. No other platform's contract is included, so no cross-platform comparison is made here. The data reflects a single observation, and prices may have changed since it was taken.
References
- Polymarket: Ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 16?. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC.
Snapshot observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event asks about ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Each market resolves "Yes" if the total number of transit calls from November 16, 2026 to November 22, 2026, according to IMF PortWatch, meets the threshold in its title [1]. The total is the sum of daily figures for every date in the period, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships [1].
The contract also sets timing rules. The market resolves once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period. If any data remains unpublished 14 calendar days after the final date, the market resolves on the most recent data published at that time [1]. The listed end time is Nov 23, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC [1]. This is a listed close time, not a resolution. Thresholds differ by market: the titles range from 170+ to 195+ ships [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, and the application retrieved them at Nov 14, 2026, 1:07 PM UTC [1]. They describe that moment only. They are not live quotes and not executable prices.
Yes prices by threshold were: 170+ at 0.88, 175+ at 0.84, 180+ at 0.485, 185+ at 0.485, 190+ at 0.49, and 195+ at 0.21 [1]. Higher thresholds do not show a strictly lower Yes price across this snapshot. The 190+ contract sits slightly above the 180+ and 185+ contracts. These small gaps are recorded facts, but they do not show what drives the contracts, and they should not be read as a forecast.
Each contract's Yes and No prices are its own pair. Do not treat them as a combined field or average them across thresholds. The provider reports a total of $275 in volume for this event, in US dollars [1]. Volume is not liquidity and does not indicate how many traders took part.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record lists six markets, all included, with no partial sample [1]. The sample warning clarifies that this covers the saved provider event and does not establish that every real-world outcome is listed [1]. Do not infer that unlisted thresholds would be priced lower or higher.
Resolution depends on IMF PortWatch publication, which has not happened within the evidence provided. The source also notes that erroneous data may trigger a window of up to seven calendar days for correction [1]. Prices here cannot show whether those data will be published, corrected, or how the week will finally total.
References
- Polymarket: Ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 16?. Provider data observed Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 14, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event asking whether ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will reach a stated threshold during the week of November 16, 2026. The event contains several markets, each tied to a different number of transits. Each market asks whether the weekly total will be at or above its threshold. The contract rules name IMF PortWatch as the resolution source and specify its Transit Calls data for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait [1]. The measured quantity is the total number of transit calls for the period from November 16, 2026 to November 22, 2026. Under the rules, the total is the sum of the daily figures for each date in that period. Each daily figure counts transit calls by container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, as published by IMF PortWatch for that date [1]. A market resolves "Yes" if the total is at least the number in its title and "No" otherwise [1]. The rules also explain timing. A market resolves once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period, and later revisions are not considered unless a data integrity clause applies [1]. If some data remains unpublished 14 calendar days after the final date of the period, the market resolves on the most recent data published at that point [1]. The rules also describe a process for clearly erroneous published values. A market may stay open for up to seven calendar days from the original release so the resolution source can issue a correction. If no corrected value appears in that window, Polymarket may issue a Clarification [1]. The listed end time of the event is 2026-11-23T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That listed time is a contract field and does not describe an announced event. The prices shown for each threshold are snapshots from the observation time recorded by the application. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The reported volume for this Polymarket event is a platform total in US dollars and does not indicate liquidity or the number of participants.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a weekly count of ship transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by IMF PortWatch [1]. Because the question is a threshold on a total rather than a single day, each market depends on the sum of daily published figures for November 16 through November 22, 2026 [1]. Traders therefore follow how the resolution source publishes and corrects its data, not only the strait's traffic. The event lists several thresholds, so the markets differ by the total they require. Their prices are separate contracts and should be read as individual snapshots rather than as a single distribution.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-14 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Bab el-Mandeb contract actually count?
It counts the total number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from November 16, 2026 to November 22, 2026, according to IMF PortWatch. The total is the sum of the daily figures for each date in the period, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships [1].
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period. If any data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after the period's final date, the market resolves on the most recent data published at that time [1].
What happens if the published data contains an error?
If the resolution source publishes clearly erroneous data caused by technical or operational error, or by unauthorized interference, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days from the original release. If a corrected value is published in that window, it is eligible for resolution. If not, Polymarket may issue a Clarification [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.