France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?
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1
1
France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?
PM $76.99
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 4.5% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes4.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
1
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Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government fails to make a scheduled payment on any French government note, bond, or bill at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any French sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the French Treasury (Agence France Trésor), Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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