GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsScience and Technology

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Name: Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$96.40M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Vol

$96.40M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $66.72M

Kalshi

markets · $29.69M

Price Spread

1.1%avg

max 1.1%

Arbitrage

of 1 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $96.40M

69%

31%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(1)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	4%	5%	1%

Single-Platform Markets(6)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

21%

Top Probability

$96.40M

Volume

Markets

5.3%

Price Gap

About This Event

Before 2027 If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before X 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 27, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before X 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $72.56M
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.01M
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 72.19)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (2 mkts) vs Kalshi (6 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $38.12M
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $27.61M
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.1% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 1, 2026): Vol $168.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $325.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $302.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $591.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $690.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $4.75M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIScience and Technology

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Volume$29.69M

Markets6

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will

Volume$66.72M

Markets2

7 of 7

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2029?

If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet include

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2028?

If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average4.4%

Polymarket

3.9%

Kalshi+1.1%

5.0%

Difference:1.1%

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 3.9¢No 96.2¢

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Dec 1, 2026?

If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Nov 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Nov 1, 2026?

If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes

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Next Market Closes

95d 12h remaining

Jan 01, 2027 4:59 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

4¢

Polymarket

5¢

Kalshi

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Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?