GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Lima Mayoral Election Winner

Name: Lima Mayoral Election Winner
End: 2026-10-04T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$120.17K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Lima Mayoral Election Winner

Vol

$120.17K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $120.17K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $120.17K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

23 markets tracked

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(23)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	68%
Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	24%
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	7%
Will Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	2%
Will Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	1%
Will Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	1%
Will Samuel Marcos Daza Taype win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	1%
Will Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	1%
Will Rubén José Ramírez Mateo win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	1%
Will Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%
Will Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%
Will Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%
Will Jessica Viviana Linares Romero win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%
Will Yehude Simón Munaro win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%
Will Santiago Rosendo Abarca León win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%
Will Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%
Will Sandro Caller Gutiérrez win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%
Will Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%
Will Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%
Will Flor de María Hurtado Valdez win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%
Will Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%
Will Segundo Valdez Zavala win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%
Will Samir Frank Quispe Caballero win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

68%

Top Probability

$120.17K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible repo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lima Mayoral Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (30 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible repo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be consid"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $120.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $490.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Santiago Rosendo Abarca León win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $9.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $8.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Sandro Caller Gutiérrez win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jessica Viviana Linares Romero win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Rubén José Ramírez Mateo win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $36.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Flor de María Hurtado Valdez win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Samuel Marcos Daza Taype win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Segundo Valdez Zavala win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Samir Frank Quispe Caballero win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Yehude Simón Munaro win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $17.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics