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2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

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2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

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Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

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Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	12%
Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	11%
Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 31 to 60 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	11%
Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 11 to 30 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	10%
Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	9%
Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	8%
Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 31 to 60 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	7%
Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 1 to 10 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	7%
Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 211 to 538 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	6%
Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 211 to 538 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	5%
Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 1 to 10 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	4%
Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 131 to 210 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	4%
Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 11 to 30 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	4%
Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 131 to 210 Electoral College votes?	Kalshi	3%

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About This Event

Nov 7, 2028 If Republican wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between X votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the conclusion of the January joint session of Congress to count electoral college ballots, including if no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes. This market will close and expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the conclusion o

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2028 Electoral College margin of victory?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 7, 2028

If Republican wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between X votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the conclusion of the January joint session of Congress to count electoral college ballots, including if no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes. This market will close and expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the conclusion o

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Republican wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 91-130 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the conclusion of the January joint session of Cong"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 31 to 60 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 211 to 538 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 1 to 10 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 131 to 210 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 11 to 30 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 31 to 60 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 211 to 538 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 1 to 10 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 131 to 210 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 11 to 30 Electoral College votes?
- **Kalshi** (End: May 6, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

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KALSHI

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

If Democratic wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 61-90 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the conclusion of the January joint session of Congr

KALSHI

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes?

If Democratic wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 91-130 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the conclusion of the January joint session of Cong

KALSHI

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 31 to 60 Electoral College votes?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 31 to 60 Electoral College votes?

If Democratic wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 31-60 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the conclusion of the January joint session of Congr

KALSHI

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 11 to 30 Electoral College votes?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 11 to 30 Electoral College votes?

If Democratic wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 11-30 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the conclusion of the January joint session of Congr

KALSHI

Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

If Republican wins the Electoral College vote in 2028 by a margin of between 61-90 votes above the second-place candidate, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the conclusion of the January joint session of Congr

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Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

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Events (1)

2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

Markets (14)

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 31 to 60 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 31 to 60 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 11 to 30 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 11 to 30 Electoral College votes?

Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

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Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

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2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 91 to 130 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 31 to 60 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 31 to 60 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 11 to 30 Electoral College votes?

Will Democratic win the 2028 presidential election by 11 to 30 Electoral College votes?

Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

Will Republican win the 2028 presidential election by 61 to 90 Electoral College votes?

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