GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Nayarit Governor Election Winner

Name: Nayarit Governor Election Winner
End: 2027-06-06T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$28.57K

Events

Markets

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Nayarit Governor Election Winner

Vol

$28.57K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $28.57K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $28.57K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

22 markets tracked

Will Héctor Santana García win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(22)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Héctor Santana García win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	24%
Will Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	16%
Will Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	15%
Will Geraldine Ponce Méndez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	12%
Will Ivonne Sabrina Díaz win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	4%
Will José Ramón Cambero Pérez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	3%
Will Gustavo Ayón Aguirre win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	3%
Will Gloria Núñez Sánchez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	2%
Will Pavel Jarero Velázquez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Luis Zamora Carrillo win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Manuel Cota Jiménez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Jorge Armando Ortiz Rodríguez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Citlalli Rubí Huerta win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Ivideliza Reyes Hernández win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Nadia Ramírez López win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Jesús Armando Vélez Macías win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Julieta Mejía Ibáñez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will María Elizabeth López Blanco win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will José Antonio Barajas López win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Paola Vargas Arciniega win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Ignacio Flores Medina win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Enrique Díaz López win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

24%

Top Probability

$28.57K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambigui

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Nayarit Governor Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 6, 2027 (275 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambigui

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by Dece"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $21.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $260.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Geraldine Ponce Méndez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Héctor Santana García win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Pavel Jarero Velázquez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $354
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will María Elizabeth López Blanco win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $359
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jorge Armando Ortiz Rodríguez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Gustavo Ayón Aguirre win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $383
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Ignacio Flores Medina win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $345
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Luis Zamora Carrillo win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $391
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Julieta Mejía Ibáñez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $426
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Gloria Núñez Sánchez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $323
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Citlalli Rubí Huerta win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $365
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Ivideliza Reyes Hernández win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $344
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will José Ramón Cambero Pérez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $364
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will José Antonio Barajas López win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $418
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Nadia Ramírez López win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $361
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Manuel Cota Jiménez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $393
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Paola Vargas Arciniega win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $344
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Enrique Díaz López win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $366
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $412
  DATA: [Yes: 15.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.9% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Ivonne Sabrina Díaz win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $424
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Jesús Armando Vélez Macías win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $359
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics