Nayarit Governor Election Winner
PM $33.9K
1
22
Nayarit Governor Election Winner
PM $33.9K
1
22
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez at 70.7%.
Polymarket
- Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez70.7%
- Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu8.5%
- Manuel Cota Jiménez5.1%
- Héctor Santana García5%
- Geraldine Ponce Méndez3.6%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $33.9K
Reported volume · provider units
22
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The provider event asks which candidate wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial election. Each included market is a separate Yes or No contract on one named candidate. The source states that gubernatorial elections are scheduled for June 6, 2027 [1]. It says the market resolves to the listed candidate who wins, and that an interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify [1]. If results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-06-07T03:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not an announced date for the result.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T03:41:07.582Z [1]. The prices below describe that observation only. Among the included markets, the Yes price is 0.721 for Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez, 0.114 for Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu, and 0.048 for Héctor Santana García [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Volume is not part of the supplied evidence, so no conclusion about liquidity can be drawn from it.
The sample is partial. Twelve of 22 markets from this provider event are included [1]. The selection rule orders markets by finite Yes price, then by volume, and the counts describe only this saved event [1]. Prices for omitted markets are not shown, so the table should not be read as the complete field. The included Yes prices are separate contracts and should not be summed or averaged. Rankings should not be combined with other events or providers.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why prices are at these levels, and it does not report news, trader counts, or prices from other platforms. The price for the "Other" outcome does not appear in the included sample. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting, and if that is ambiguous, on official results reported by Nayarit and Mexican government sources, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico [1]. Other platforms may word their rules or close times differently, and comparing them would require their own sources. Differences in price between separate contracts do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Nayarit Governor Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
The Nayarit Governor Election Winner contract on Polymarket is tied to the gubernatorial election in the Mexican state of Nayarit. The contract's rules state that the election is scheduled for June 6, 2027 [1]. A separate Wikipedia summary of the 2027 Mexican local elections gives the same date and notes that the vote is set to take place concurrently with the 2027 federal elections. It also says voters will elect 17 governors, members of 31 local congresses, and numerous municipal authorities [2]. The contract resolves to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial election. Under the rules, any interim or caretaker governor does not qualify [1]. Each candidate in the event has a separate Yes and No contract, so a candidate's contract resolves on whether that person wins the election [1]. The rules also set out what happens if the outcome is unclear. If results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1]. The contract's listed end time is June 7, 2027, at 03:59 UTC [1]. That is a timestamp in the contract data, not a report that any event has occurred.
Historical Context
The source material gives limited background. Mexico held general elections on 2 June 2024, when voters elected a new president for a six-year term, all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, and all 128 members of the Senate. These elections took place concurrently with the 2024 state elections [3]. The 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial race is scheduled within the same cycle of concurrent local and federal voting [2]. The supplied material does not describe earlier Nayarit gubernatorial elections or the candidates' histories.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which candidate wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial election, using the resolution method in its rules [1]. Because the event sits inside the 2027 local election cycle, the timing and the definition of a winner matter for how the contract settles [1][2]. Interim or caretaker governors do not count, and the Other outcome covers cases where the result is not known by the stated deadline [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the election the contract refers to?
The contract rules say the gubernatorial elections in Nayarit are scheduled for June 6, 2027 [1]. A Wikipedia summary of the 2027 Mexican local elections gives the same date and says it will be held concurrently with the federal elections [2].
Does an interim or caretaker governor count as a winner?
No. The rules state that any interim or caretaker governor will not qualify for the market [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
If results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].
What sources decide the outcome?
The rules say resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves on official results reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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