The contract asks whether NOAA's Climate Prediction Center will report a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for at least one of five overlapping three-month seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27 [1]. The contract defines a Super El Niño as an El Niño event in which RONI reaches that threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season, and it defines an ENSO season as one of NOAA's standard overlapping three-month periods [1]. The contract's resolution rules set out when a market can settle. It may resolve "Yes" as soon as NOAA first publishes a qualifying RONI value for any listed season [1]. If no season qualifies, the contract does not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, because the contract treats that season as El Niño's typical peak-strength window [1]. The first published value for each season is final, and later revisions do not change the outcome [1]. The contract lists an end time of 2027-04-01 03:59 UTC [1]. That date is part of the contract's listed terms and is not an announced publication date for any NOAA update. The contract refers to a specific official source for resolution, namely NOAA CPC's RONI updates [1]. Encyclopedia entries and other background pages are not the resolution source named in the contract, so their descriptions of the event do not by themselves determine the outcome. A Wikipedia entry on the 2026-27 El Niño describes the event as ongoing, with its onset declared on 2 June 2026 by the World Meteorological Organization [2]. The same entry says the event is the strongest El Niño measured for its time of year, that the WMO has reported it will likely be the strongest on record, and that it has been classified as a "very strong El Niño", also known as a Super El Niño [2]. The entry expects the event to peak in November or December and to last through early 2027 [2].

Historical Context

Super El Niño events, officially called very strong El Niño events, are described as climatic phenomena that result from average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean rising by 2° Celsius or more [3]. Climate impacts associated with these events can include widespread flooding, drought, unseasonable temperature extremes, crop failures, disruption to water supplies, and an increased risk of wildfires and cyclones [3]. As of September 2026, the same source reports six super El Niño events in recorded history [3]. It also notes that El Niño events before modern recordkeeping are sometimes identified by paleoclimatologists, historians and archeologists and are called Mega-Niños [3].

Frequently Asked Questions