GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?

Name: Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
End: 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$99.45K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?

Vol

$99.45K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $99.45K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $99.45K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?	Poly	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

13%

Top Probability

$99.45K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2028 (483 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli offi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $99.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.4K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.59)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $99.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics