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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

Name: French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
End: 2027-04-23T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$787.27

Events

Markets

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French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

Vol

$787.27

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $787.27

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $787.27

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

21 markets tracked

Will Gabriel Attal announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Gabriel Attal announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	84%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	77%
Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	74%
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	60%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	58%
Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	58%
Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	57%
Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	56%
Will Carole Delga announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	54%
Will Gérald Darmanin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	52%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	51%
Will Élisabeth Borne announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	50%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	43%
Will Michel Barnier announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	43%
Will Marine Le Pen announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	39%
Will Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	29%
Will Manuel Bompard announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	28%
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	28%
Will Valérie Pécresse announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	27%
Will François Bayrou announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	27%
Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Poly	26%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

84%

Top Probability

$787.27

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 23, 2027 (287 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $787
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $116
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Michel Barnier announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $35
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Valérie Pécresse announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Gabriel Attal announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $148
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Élisabeth Borne announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $41
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Yaël Braun-Pivet announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Gérald Darmanin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $31
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will François Bayrou announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $18
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $41
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Carole Delga announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Olivier Faure announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $34
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $19
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Manuel Bompard announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $95
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $32
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $11
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Marine Le Pen announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 23, 2027): Vol $48
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics