GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic? (7/6 - 7/12)

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Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic? (7/6 - 7/12)

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7 markets tracked

Will July 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will July 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?	Kalshi	74%
Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?	Kalshi	13%
Will July 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?	Kalshi	5%
Will July 12 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?	Kalshi	4%
Will July 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?	Kalshi	4%
Will July 10 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?	Kalshi	3%
Will July 9 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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74%

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About This Event

7/6 - 7/12 If Jul X 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where X

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic? (7/6 - 7/12)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 7/6 - 7/12

If Jul X 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where X

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Jul 12, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Daily counts will be evaluated from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will July 12 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will July 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will July 10 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will July 9 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will July 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will July 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic? (7/6 - 7/12)

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KALSHI

Will July 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.5¢No 26.5¢

KALSHITech

Will July 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

If Jul 7, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Daily counts will be evaluated from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier

KALSHI

Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHITech

Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

If Jul 6, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Daily counts will be evaluated from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier

KALSHI

Will July 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHITech

Will July 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

If Jul 8, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Daily counts will be evaluated from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier

KALSHI

Will July 12 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHITech

Will July 12 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

If Jul 12, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Daily counts will be evaluated from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier

KALSHI

Will July 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHITech

Will July 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

If Jul 11, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Daily counts will be evaluated from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier

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Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic? (7/6 - 7/12)

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic? (7/6 - 7/12)

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Will July 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

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Events (1)

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic? (7/6 - 7/12)

Markets (7)

Will July 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 12 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 12 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

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Will July 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic? (7/6 - 7/12)

Will July 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 12 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 12 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

Will July 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)?

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